もしも第4ラウンド終了時のスコアが単独3位だと結果にどういう影響がでるのか。
# -*- encoding: utf-8 -*- for diff in range(30): print diff f = open('result.txt', 'r') while 1: l = f.readline() if not l: break left = l[0:l.index(':') - 1] score = [int(x) for x in left.split(',')] right = l[l.index(':') + 2:] result = [int(x) for x in right[right.index('[')+1:right.index(']')].split(',')] if (score[0] > 0) & (score[0] < 14) & (score[1] > 0) & (score[1] - score[0] == diff): win1 = 100.0 * (result[3] + result[4]) / sum(result) win2 = 100.0 * (result[4]) / sum(result) print '[%2d, %2d] %6.2f (%6.2f)' % (score[0], score[1], win1, win2), result
1位のプレイヤーと2位のプレイヤーの点差ごとにまとめてみる。
[2位との点差, 1位との点差] 最終結果で最中限になっている確率(単独2位で最中限になっている確率)
0 [ 1, 1] 8.18 ( 8.18) [196, 429, 4, 0, 56] [ 2, 2] 8.05 ( 8.05) [210, 406, 12, 0, 55] [ 3, 3] 8.35 ( 7.91) [195, 418, 24, 3, 55] [ 4, 4] 8.60 ( 8.28) [169, 380, 14, 2, 51] [ 5, 5] 7.42 ( 6.36) [158, 333, 33, 6, 36] [ 6, 6] 5.45 ( 4.89) [177, 296, 30, 3, 26] [ 7, 7] 5.56 ( 4.44) [131, 274, 20, 5, 20] [ 8, 8] 6.94 ( 5.59) [131, 262, 23, 6, 25] [ 9, 9] 3.08 ( 2.64) [115, 306, 20, 2, 12] [10, 10] 2.30 ( 1.28) [109, 261, 13, 4, 5] [11, 11] 2.05 ( 0.77) [105, 263, 14, 5, 3] [12, 12] 0.33 ( 0.00) [84, 211, 5, 1, 0] [13, 13] 0.00 ( 0.00) [78, 200, 0, 0, 0] 1 [ 1, 2] 10.20 ( 7.95) [1, 1241, 0, 31, 110] [ 2, 3] 12.61 ( 8.30) [1, 1094, 0, 54, 104] [ 3, 4] 13.80 ( 6.73) [0, 1024, 0, 84, 80] [ 4, 5] 16.67 ( 7.17) [1, 964, 0, 110, 83] [ 5, 6] 18.89 ( 6.30) [2, 874, 0, 136, 68] [ 6, 7] 18.41 ( 5.31) [3, 826, 0, 133, 54] [ 7, 8] 16.79 ( 3.23) [3, 770, 0, 126, 30] [ 8, 9] 14.40 ( 3.16) [1, 730, 0, 96, 27] [ 9, 10] 12.44 ( 1.40) [0, 690, 0, 87, 11] [10, 11] 9.62 ( 1.24) [2, 656, 0, 61, 9] [11, 12] 4.86 ( 0.16) [1, 606, 0, 30, 1] [12, 13] 1.75 ( 0.16) [1, 618, 0, 10, 1] [13, 14] 0.55 ( 0.00) [1, 539, 0, 3, 0] 2 [ 1, 3] 13.24 ( 9.97) [16, 1124, 0, 43, 131] [ 2, 4] 15.50 ( 10.62) [7, 1067, 0, 62, 135] [ 3, 5] 18.86 ( 11.64) [11, 944, 0, 85, 137] [ 4, 6] 19.85 ( 10.02) [8, 840, 0, 104, 106] [ 5, 7] 25.79 ( 12.63) [3, 702, 0, 125, 120] [ 6, 8] 23.93 ( 12.58) [5, 739, 0, 111, 123] [ 7, 9] 20.60 ( 10.61) [7, 756, 0, 96, 102] [ 8, 10] 18.71 ( 8.70) [2, 680, 0, 84, 73] [ 9, 11] 15.28 ( 6.21) [5, 677, 0, 73, 50] [10, 12] 8.43 ( 2.29) [4, 637, 0, 43, 16] [11, 13] 5.60 ( 1.82) [4, 620, 0, 25, 12] [12, 14] 1.21 ( 0.00) [4, 566, 0, 7, 0] [13, 15] 0.37 ( 0.00) [2, 531, 0, 2, 0] 3 [ 1, 4] 17.34 ( 12.41) [16, 990, 0, 60, 151] [ 2, 5] 20.82 ( 14.73) [14, 857, 0, 67, 162] [ 3, 6] 24.89 ( 17.53) [11, 816, 0, 81, 193] [ 4, 7] 27.41 ( 16.81) [10, 737, 0, 109, 173] [ 5, 8] 32.00 ( 21.37) [8, 708, 0, 112, 225] [ 6, 9] 25.37 ( 14.93) [12, 688, 0, 98, 140] [ 7, 10] 27.57 ( 17.63) [12, 637, 0, 89, 158] [ 8, 11] 21.77 ( 13.30) [8, 639, 0, 70, 110] [ 9, 12] 15.28 ( 9.25) [11, 621, 0, 45, 69] [10, 13] 7.15 ( 3.73) [5, 618, 0, 23, 25] [11, 14] 3.81 ( 1.83) [7, 624, 0, 13, 12] [12, 15] 1.36 ( 0.00) [5, 577, 0, 8, 0] [13, 16] 0.22 ( 0.00) [7, 446, 0, 1, 0] 4 [ 1, 5] 21.55 ( 16.22) [23, 920, 0, 64, 195] [ 2, 6] 25.14 ( 18.19) [14, 805, 0, 76, 199] [ 3, 7] 28.88 ( 21.16) [13, 733, 0, 81, 222] [ 4, 8] 31.85 ( 23.13) [17, 640, 0, 84, 223] [ 5, 9] 33.17 ( 23.30) [16, 661, 0, 100, 236] [ 6, 10] 31.16 ( 22.48) [9, 625, 0, 80, 207] [ 7, 11] 25.54 ( 19.50) [7, 646, 0, 53, 171] [ 8, 12] 22.45 ( 15.61) [20, 581, 0, 53, 121] [ 9, 13] 14.54 ( 9.44) [15, 655, 0, 40, 74] [10, 14] 7.59 ( 3.58) [11, 634, 0, 28, 25] [11, 15] 4.41 ( 1.10) [12, 595, 0, 21, 7] [12, 16] 1.60 ( 0.60) [13, 480, 0, 5, 3] [13, 17] 0.99 ( 0.00) [8, 394, 0, 4, 0] 5 [ 1, 6] 23.80 ( 15.87) [22, 727, 0, 78, 156] [ 2, 7] 28.81 ( 22.30) [35, 731, 0, 70, 240] [ 3, 8] 35.32 ( 28.83) [27, 590, 0, 62, 275] [ 4, 9] 34.39 ( 26.56) [22, 598, 0, 74, 251] [ 5, 10] 36.80 ( 29.22) [20, 564, 0, 70, 270] [ 6, 11] 32.47 ( 26.26) [21, 555, 0, 53, 224] [ 7, 12] 24.55 ( 15.81) [27, 560, 0, 68, 123] [ 8, 13] 23.16 ( 17.37) [19, 565, 0, 44, 132] [ 9, 14] 16.45 ( 10.23) [14, 631, 0, 48, 79] [10, 15] 8.21 ( 4.93) [14, 601, 0, 22, 33] [11, 16] 5.28 ( 2.29) [19, 519, 0, 17, 13] [12, 17] 1.21 ( 0.24) [8, 400, 0, 4, 1] [13, 18] 0.91 ( 0.00) [13, 314, 0, 3, 0] 6 [ 1, 7] 33.30 ( 28.71) [32, 637, 0, 46, 288] [ 2, 8] 35.38 ( 28.83) [20, 621, 0, 65, 286] [ 3, 9] 35.91 ( 30.38) [32, 582, 0, 53, 291] [ 4, 10] 36.53 ( 30.48) [24, 532, 0, 53, 267] [ 5, 11] 36.51 ( 29.64) [28, 499, 0, 57, 246] [ 6, 12] 32.68 ( 26.70) [19, 566, 0, 52, 232] [ 7, 13] 28.83 ( 22.07) [20, 570, 0, 56, 183] [ 8, 14] 20.93 ( 16.02) [30, 582, 0, 38, 124] [ 9, 15] 15.25 ( 9.34) [22, 595, 0, 43, 68] [10, 16] 8.10 ( 3.80) [15, 541, 0, 26, 23] [11, 17] 3.28 ( 1.54) [8, 494, 0, 9, 8] [12, 18] 0.63 ( 0.32) [6, 309, 0, 1, 1] [13, 19] 0.00 ( 0.00) [10, 215, 0, 0, 0] 7 [ 1, 8] 37.24 ( 31.89) [32, 590, 0, 53, 316] [ 2, 9] 37.99 ( 31.62) [31, 524, 0, 57, 283] [ 3, 10] 38.97 ( 33.37) [22, 523, 0, 50, 298] [ 4, 11] 40.66 ( 35.70) [28, 474, 0, 42, 302] [ 5, 12] 37.59 ( 32.98) [24, 504, 0, 39, 279] [ 6, 13] 32.17 ( 27.16) [28, 554, 0, 43, 233] [ 7, 14] 24.91 ( 21.15) [22, 578, 0, 30, 169] [ 8, 15] 19.95 ( 15.47) [39, 639, 0, 38, 131] [ 9, 16] 14.50 ( 9.77) [17, 543, 0, 31, 64] [10, 17] 8.14 ( 4.25) [18, 501, 0, 22, 24] [11, 18] 3.29 ( 1.01) [9, 373, 0, 9, 4] [12, 19] 1.45 ( 1.09) [5, 266, 0, 1, 3] [13, 20] 0.60 ( 0.00) [4, 161, 0, 1, 0] 8 [ 1, 9] 37.49 ( 33.26) [29, 548, 0, 39, 307] [ 2, 10] 39.60 ( 36.39) [25, 483, 0, 27, 306] [ 3, 11] 41.04 ( 37.29) [15, 472, 0, 31, 308] [ 4, 12] 40.22 ( 37.25) [33, 450, 0, 24, 301] [ 5, 13] 36.81 ( 32.16) [27, 476, 0, 37, 256] [ 6, 14] 30.57 ( 27.52) [25, 520, 0, 24, 216] [ 7, 15] 27.74 ( 21.11) [24, 510, 0, 49, 156] [ 8, 16] 21.65 ( 15.73) [14, 529, 0, 41, 109] [ 9, 17] 11.20 ( 5.76) [12, 543, 0, 34, 36] [10, 18] 7.23 ( 4.49) [15, 460, 0, 14, 23] [11, 19] 3.88 ( 1.66) [18, 329, 0, 8, 6] [12, 20] 1.40 ( 0.93) [8, 204, 0, 1, 2] [13, 21] 0.80 ( 0.00) [5, 119, 0, 1, 0] 9 [ 1, 10] 40.55 ( 38.21) [20, 411, 0, 17, 277] [ 2, 11] 44.26 ( 41.04) [19, 379, 0, 23, 293] [ 3, 12] 41.99 ( 40.18) [25, 424, 0, 14, 311] [ 4, 13] 38.12 ( 35.51) [17, 457, 0, 20, 272] [ 5, 14] 37.68 ( 33.89) [17, 428, 0, 27, 242] [ 6, 15] 33.54 ( 28.41) [19, 512, 0, 41, 227] [ 7, 16] 22.94 ( 17.48) [17, 534, 0, 39, 125] [ 8, 17] 20.06 ( 14.33) [16, 514, 0, 38, 95] [ 9, 18] 12.73 ( 8.32) [7, 507, 0, 26, 49] [10, 19] 8.13 ( 4.51) [11, 396, 0, 16, 20] [11, 20] 3.00 ( 1.67) [7, 284, 0, 4, 5] [12, 21] 0.52 ( 0.52) [2, 190, 0, 0, 1] [13, 22] 0.00 ( 0.00) [2, 96, 0, 0, 0] 10 [ 1, 11] 39.94 ( 38.43) [7, 390, 0, 10, 254] [ 2, 12] 43.86 ( 41.79) [8, 344, 0, 13, 262] [ 3, 13] 39.94 ( 38.91) [6, 400, 0, 7, 263] [ 4, 14] 39.49 ( 36.81) [13, 370, 0, 17, 233] [ 5, 15] 35.88 ( 31.64) [9, 445, 0, 30, 224] [ 6, 16] 29.54 ( 24.37) [12, 465, 0, 35, 165] [ 7, 17] 23.84 ( 19.46) [15, 525, 0, 31, 138] [ 8, 18] 17.92 ( 14.01) [11, 493, 0, 24, 86] [ 9, 19] 12.42 ( 7.04) [12, 411, 0, 26, 34] [10, 20] 6.12 ( 2.45) [1, 306, 0, 12, 8] [11, 21] 4.00 ( 0.44) [8, 208, 0, 8, 1] [12, 22] 1.38 ( 0.00) [2, 141, 0, 2, 0] [13, 23] 0.00 ( 0.00) [2, 68, 0, 0, 0] 11 [ 1, 12] 43.41 ( 43.06) [2, 320, 0, 2, 245] [ 2, 13] 41.74 ( 41.07) [5, 344, 0, 4, 246] [ 3, 14] 38.99 ( 37.31) [5, 358, 0, 10, 222] [ 4, 15] 37.82 ( 35.10) [5, 383, 0, 17, 219] [ 5, 16] 37.84 ( 35.10) [7, 356, 0, 16, 205] [ 6, 17] 33.18 ( 27.22) [8, 429, 0, 39, 178] [ 7, 18] 25.44 ( 19.84) [8, 458, 0, 35, 124] [ 8, 19] 18.74 ( 13.96) [8, 417, 0, 25, 73] [ 9, 20] 10.05 ( 6.62) [4, 363, 0, 14, 27] [10, 21] 8.03 ( 4.38) [2, 250, 0, 10, 12] [11, 22] 1.80 ( 0.00) [0, 164, 0, 3, 0] [12, 23] 0.00 ( 0.00) [1, 102, 0, 0, 0] [13, 24] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 71, 0, 0, 0] 12 [ 1, 13] 38.11 ( 37.89) [4, 277, 0, 1, 172] [ 2, 14] 42.74 ( 41.45) [3, 265, 0, 6, 194] [ 3, 15] 39.31 ( 36.75) [2, 330, 0, 14, 201] [ 4, 16] 35.92 ( 33.03) [5, 350, 0, 16, 183] [ 5, 17] 37.86 ( 34.30) [1, 365, 0, 21, 202] [ 6, 18] 32.71 ( 28.81) [2, 395, 0, 23, 170] [ 7, 19] 26.25 ( 22.55) [5, 394, 0, 20, 122] [ 8, 20] 23.18 ( 17.44) [1, 347, 0, 26, 79] [ 9, 21] 11.58 ( 7.39) [1, 358, 0, 17, 30] [10, 22] 6.13 ( 4.60) [1, 244, 0, 4, 12] [11, 23] 3.31 ( 2.21) [1, 174, 0, 2, 4] [12, 24] 2.27 ( 1.14) [0, 86, 0, 1, 1] [13, 25] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 43, 0, 0, 0] 13 [ 1, 14] 43.27 ( 43.01) [0, 215, 0, 1, 163] [ 2, 15] 40.10 ( 39.36) [2, 240, 0, 3, 159] [ 3, 16] 39.54 ( 38.16) [0, 263, 0, 6, 166] [ 4, 17] 41.95 ( 38.77) [0, 292, 0, 16, 195] [ 5, 18] 35.73 ( 32.53) [0, 322, 0, 16, 163] [ 6, 19] 29.45 ( 24.66) [2, 410, 0, 28, 144] [ 7, 20] 26.62 ( 20.91) [1, 385, 0, 30, 110] [ 8, 21] 18.34 ( 12.96) [0, 334, 0, 22, 53] [ 9, 22] 10.07 ( 6.25) [0, 259, 0, 11, 18] [10, 23] 7.83 ( 4.61) [1, 199, 0, 7, 10] [11, 24] 4.20 ( 3.36) [0, 114, 0, 1, 4] [12, 25] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 66, 0, 0, 0] [13, 26] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 38, 0, 0, 0] 14 [ 1, 15] 40.92 ( 40.92) [0, 179, 0, 0, 124] [ 2, 16] 39.83 ( 39.54) [0, 210, 0, 1, 138] [ 3, 17] 41.97 ( 40.77) [0, 242, 0, 5, 170] [ 4, 18] 38.22 ( 35.01) [0, 270, 0, 14, 153] [ 5, 19] 36.00 ( 32.63) [0, 304, 0, 16, 155] [ 6, 20] 35.93 ( 29.44) [0, 296, 0, 30, 136] [ 7, 21] 24.58 ( 20.97) [0, 356, 0, 17, 99] [ 8, 22] 14.29 ( 11.43) [0, 270, 0, 9, 36] [ 9, 23] 15.19 ( 8.86) [0, 201, 0, 15, 21] [10, 24] 7.10 ( 5.16) [0, 144, 0, 3, 8] [11, 25] 4.12 ( 1.03) [0, 93, 0, 3, 1] [12, 26] 1.85 ( 0.00) [0, 53, 0, 1, 0] [13, 27] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 31, 0, 0, 0] 15 [ 1, 16] 47.01 ( 46.64) [0, 142, 0, 1, 125] [ 2, 17] 45.03 ( 44.72) [0, 177, 0, 1, 144] [ 3, 18] 43.24 ( 42.06) [0, 193, 0, 4, 143] [ 4, 19] 39.11 ( 36.87) [0, 218, 0, 8, 132] [ 5, 20] 38.44 ( 34.79) [0, 253, 0, 15, 143] [ 6, 21] 28.47 ( 25.28) [0, 314, 0, 14, 111] [ 7, 22] 25.21 ( 21.25) [0, 264, 0, 14, 75] [ 8, 23] 14.05 ( 11.44) [0, 263, 0, 8, 35] [ 9, 24] 8.59 ( 6.57) [0, 181, 0, 4, 13] [10, 25] 4.07 ( 1.63) [0, 118, 0, 3, 2] [11, 26] 3.41 ( 3.41) [0, 85, 0, 0, 3] [12, 27] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 40, 0, 0, 0] [13, 28] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 23, 0, 0, 0] 16 [ 1, 17] 36.69 ( 35.50) [0, 107, 0, 2, 60] [ 2, 18] 40.76 ( 40.76) [0, 141, 0, 0, 97] [ 3, 19] 42.24 ( 40.59) [0, 175, 0, 5, 123] [ 4, 20] 37.39 ( 34.84) [0, 221, 0, 9, 123] [ 5, 21] 36.67 ( 33.01) [0, 259, 0, 15, 135] [ 6, 22] 30.45 ( 24.30) [0, 249, 0, 22, 87] [ 7, 23] 26.04 ( 21.18) [0, 213, 0, 14, 61] [ 8, 24] 17.13 ( 15.14) [0, 208, 0, 5, 38] [ 9, 25] 8.61 ( 4.64) [0, 138, 0, 6, 7] [10, 26] 5.88 ( 1.96) [0, 96, 0, 4, 2] [11, 27] 1.82 ( 0.00) [0, 54, 0, 1, 0] [12, 28] 4.17 ( 0.00) [0, 23, 0, 1, 0] [13, 29] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 22, 0, 0, 0] 17 [ 1, 18] 43.06 ( 43.06) [0, 82, 0, 0, 62] [ 2, 19] 43.03 ( 43.03) [0, 94, 0, 0, 71] [ 3, 20] 38.52 ( 35.80) [0, 158, 0, 7, 92] [ 4, 21] 41.90 ( 39.37) [0, 183, 0, 8, 124] [ 5, 22] 35.97 ( 32.01) [0, 178, 0, 11, 89] [ 6, 23] 32.92 ( 26.15) [0, 218, 0, 22, 85] [ 7, 24] 22.54 ( 19.72) [0, 220, 0, 8, 56] [ 8, 25] 19.39 ( 11.22) [0, 158, 0, 16, 22] [ 9, 26] 10.94 ( 7.03) [0, 114, 0, 5, 9] [10, 27] 11.27 ( 5.63) [0, 63, 0, 4, 4] [11, 28] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 49, 0, 0, 0] [12, 29] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 29, 0, 0, 0] [13, 30] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 14, 0, 0, 0] 18 [ 1, 19] 46.67 ( 46.67) [0, 56, 0, 0, 49] [ 2, 20] 44.94 ( 44.30) [0, 87, 0, 1, 70] [ 3, 21] 41.28 ( 39.91) [0, 128, 0, 3, 87] [ 4, 22] 41.88 ( 39.71) [0, 161, 0, 6, 110] [ 5, 23] 32.28 ( 29.47) [0, 193, 0, 8, 84] [ 6, 24] 31.18 ( 27.60) [0, 192, 0, 10, 77] [ 7, 25] 20.54 ( 15.18) [0, 178, 0, 12, 34] [ 8, 26] 16.67 ( 10.90) [0, 130, 0, 9, 17] [ 9, 27] 9.82 ( 3.57) [0, 101, 0, 7, 4] [10, 28] 4.35 ( 2.17) [0, 44, 0, 1, 1] [11, 29] 2.70 ( 2.70) [0, 36, 0, 0, 1] [12, 30] 3.85 ( 0.00) [0, 25, 0, 1, 0] [13, 31] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 5, 0, 0, 0] 19 [ 1, 20] 34.72 ( 34.72) [0, 47, 0, 0, 25] [ 2, 21] 36.55 ( 36.55) [0, 92, 0, 0, 53] [ 3, 22] 41.41 ( 39.90) [0, 116, 0, 3, 79] [ 4, 23] 34.20 ( 33.77) [0, 152, 0, 1, 78] [ 5, 24] 35.62 ( 31.33) [0, 150, 0, 10, 73] [ 6, 25] 30.95 ( 26.19) [0, 145, 0, 10, 55] [ 7, 26] 22.65 ( 14.92) [0, 140, 0, 14, 27] [ 8, 27] 17.59 ( 12.96) [0, 89, 0, 5, 14] [ 9, 28] 10.45 ( 5.97) [0, 60, 0, 3, 4] [10, 29] 6.38 ( 4.26) [0, 44, 0, 1, 2] [11, 30] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 32, 0, 0, 0] [12, 31] 10.53 ( 10.53) [0, 17, 0, 0, 2] [13, 32] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 5, 0, 0, 0] 20 [ 1, 21] 41.79 ( 40.30) [0, 39, 0, 1, 27] [ 2, 22] 35.92 ( 35.92) [0, 66, 0, 0, 37] [ 3, 23] 44.22 ( 42.18) [0, 82, 0, 3, 62] [ 4, 24] 40.82 ( 37.76) [0, 116, 0, 6, 74] [ 5, 25] 37.19 ( 34.67) [0, 125, 0, 5, 69] [ 6, 26] 27.22 ( 21.52) [0, 115, 0, 9, 34] [ 7, 27] 28.57 ( 21.85) [0, 85, 0, 8, 26] [ 8, 28] 15.85 ( 12.20) [0, 69, 0, 3, 10] [ 9, 29] 6.25 ( 6.25) [0, 45, 0, 0, 3] [10, 30] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 29, 0, 0, 0] [11, 31] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 17, 0, 0, 0] [12, 32] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 13, 0, 0, 0] [13, 33] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 6, 0, 0, 0] 21 [ 1, 22] 44.74 ( 44.74) [0, 21, 0, 0, 17] [ 2, 23] 44.44 ( 44.44) [0, 55, 0, 0, 44] [ 3, 24] 36.88 ( 36.17) [0, 89, 0, 1, 51] [ 4, 25] 36.96 ( 33.33) [0, 87, 0, 5, 46] [ 5, 26] 31.14 ( 27.54) [0, 115, 0, 6, 46] [ 6, 27] 27.64 ( 25.20) [0, 89, 0, 3, 31] [ 7, 28] 27.78 ( 24.44) [0, 65, 0, 3, 22] [ 8, 29] 9.23 ( 6.15) [0, 59, 0, 2, 4] [ 9, 30] 7.14 ( 2.38) [0, 39, 0, 2, 1] [10, 31] 11.43 ( 8.57) [0, 31, 0, 1, 3] [11, 32] 4.00 ( 0.00) [0, 24, 0, 1, 0] [12, 33] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 12, 0, 0, 0] [13, 34] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 3, 0, 0, 0] 22 [ 1, 23] 40.00 ( 40.00) [0, 24, 0, 0, 16] [ 2, 24] 35.14 ( 35.14) [0, 48, 0, 0, 26] [ 3, 25] 45.54 ( 44.64) [0, 61, 0, 1, 50] [ 4, 26] 36.64 ( 29.01) [0, 83, 0, 10, 38] [ 5, 27] 44.03 ( 38.06) [0, 75, 0, 8, 51] [ 6, 28] 26.32 ( 21.05) [0, 56, 0, 4, 16] [ 7, 29] 21.82 ( 16.36) [0, 43, 0, 3, 9] [ 8, 30] 16.67 ( 13.33) [0, 25, 0, 1, 4] [ 9, 31] 17.86 ( 10.71) [0, 23, 0, 2, 3] [10, 32] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 24, 0, 0, 0] [11, 33] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 21, 0, 0, 0] [12, 34] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 1, 0, 0, 0] [13, 35] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 2, 0, 0, 0] 23 [ 1, 24] 37.93 ( 37.93) [0, 18, 0, 0, 11] [ 2, 25] 40.62 ( 40.62) [0, 38, 0, 0, 26] [ 3, 26] 42.70 ( 40.45) [0, 51, 0, 2, 36] [ 4, 27] 32.53 ( 30.12) [0, 56, 0, 2, 25] [ 5, 28] 38.27 ( 35.80) [0, 50, 0, 2, 29] [ 6, 29] 27.59 ( 20.69) [0, 42, 0, 4, 12] [ 7, 30] 22.92 ( 18.75) [0, 37, 0, 2, 9] [ 8, 31] 12.50 ( 9.38) [0, 28, 0, 1, 3] [ 9, 32] 9.52 ( 9.52) [0, 19, 0, 0, 2] [10, 33] 17.39 ( 17.39) [0, 19, 0, 0, 4] [11, 34] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 9, 0, 0, 0] [12, 35] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 5, 0, 0, 0] [13, 36] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 3, 0, 0, 0] 24 [ 1, 25] 36.36 ( 36.36) [0, 14, 0, 0, 8] [ 2, 26] 42.86 ( 42.86) [0, 32, 0, 0, 24] [ 3, 27] 39.34 ( 36.07) [0, 37, 0, 2, 22] [ 4, 28] 52.31 ( 49.23) [0, 31, 0, 2, 32] [ 5, 29] 37.78 ( 31.11) [0, 28, 0, 3, 14] [ 6, 30] 26.42 ( 26.42) [0, 39, 0, 0, 14] [ 7, 31] 14.81 ( 14.81) [0, 23, 0, 0, 4] [ 8, 32] 10.34 ( 10.34) [0, 26, 0, 0, 3] [ 9, 33] 5.56 ( 0.00) [0, 17, 0, 1, 0] [10, 34] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 16, 0, 0, 0] [11, 35] 8.33 ( 0.00) [0, 11, 0, 1, 0] [12, 36] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 6, 0, 0, 0] 25 [ 1, 26] 47.62 ( 47.62) [0, 11, 0, 0, 10] [ 2, 27] 45.95 ( 45.95) [0, 20, 0, 0, 17] [ 3, 28] 35.42 ( 35.42) [0, 31, 0, 0, 17] [ 4, 29] 30.77 ( 28.21) [0, 27, 0, 1, 11] [ 5, 30] 50.00 ( 47.06) [0, 17, 0, 1, 16] [ 6, 31] 21.05 ( 15.79) [0, 15, 0, 1, 3] [ 7, 32] 38.89 ( 33.33) [0, 11, 0, 1, 6] [ 8, 33] 18.18 ( 18.18) [0, 9, 0, 0, 2] [ 9, 34] 22.22 ( 16.67) [0, 14, 0, 1, 3] [10, 35] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 6, 0, 0, 0] [11, 36] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 7, 0, 0, 0] [12, 37] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 3, 0, 0, 0] [13, 38] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 2, 0, 0, 0] 26 [ 1, 27] 71.43 ( 71.43) [0, 2, 0, 0, 5] [ 2, 28] 30.30 ( 30.30) [0, 23, 0, 0, 10] [ 3, 29] 32.14 ( 28.57) [0, 19, 0, 1, 8] [ 4, 30] 25.00 ( 25.00) [0, 15, 0, 0, 5] [ 5, 31] 38.46 ( 38.46) [0, 8, 0, 0, 5] [ 6, 32] 27.78 ( 22.22) [0, 13, 0, 1, 4] [ 7, 33] 25.00 ( 25.00) [0, 9, 0, 0, 3] [ 8, 34] 25.00 ( 25.00) [0, 9, 0, 0, 3] [ 9, 35] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 14, 0, 0, 0] [10, 36] 25.00 ( 25.00) [0, 3, 0, 0, 1] [11, 37] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 5, 0, 0, 0] [12, 38] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 3, 0, 0, 0] [13, 39] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 1, 0, 0, 0] 27 [ 1, 28] 53.85 ( 53.85) [0, 6, 0, 0, 7] [ 2, 29] 20.00 ( 20.00) [0, 8, 0, 0, 2] [ 3, 30] 26.67 ( 26.67) [0, 11, 0, 0, 4] [ 4, 31] 31.25 ( 31.25) [0, 11, 0, 0, 5] [ 5, 32] 33.33 ( 25.00) [0, 8, 0, 1, 3] [ 6, 33] 33.33 ( 33.33) [0, 8, 0, 0, 4] [ 7, 34] 40.00 ( 40.00) [0, 3, 0, 0, 2] [ 8, 35] 25.00 ( 25.00) [0, 6, 0, 0, 2] [ 9, 36] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 3, 0, 0, 0] [10, 37] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 2, 0, 0, 0] [11, 38] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 2, 0, 0, 0] [12, 39] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 3, 0, 0, 0] [13, 40] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 1, 0, 0, 0] 28 [ 1, 29] 33.33 ( 33.33) [0, 4, 0, 0, 2] [ 2, 30] 55.56 ( 55.56) [0, 4, 0, 0, 5] [ 3, 31] 55.56 ( 55.56) [0, 4, 0, 0, 5] [ 4, 32] 22.22 ( 22.22) [0, 7, 0, 0, 2] [ 5, 33] 22.22 ( 22.22) [0, 7, 0, 0, 2] [ 6, 34] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 1, 0, 0, 0] [ 7, 35] 28.57 ( 28.57) [0, 5, 0, 0, 2] [ 8, 36] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 2, 0, 0, 0] [ 9, 37] 25.00 ( 25.00) [0, 3, 0, 0, 1] [10, 38] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 4, 0, 0, 0] [11, 39] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 8, 0, 0, 0] [12, 40] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 1, 0, 0, 0] 29 [ 2, 31] 33.33 ( 33.33) [0, 2, 0, 0, 1] [ 3, 32] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 4, 0, 0, 0] [ 4, 33] 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 2] [ 5, 34] 20.00 ( 20.00) [0, 4, 0, 0, 1] [ 6, 35] 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 1] [ 7, 36] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 2, 0, 0, 0] [ 8, 37] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 6, 0, 0, 0] [ 9, 38] 33.33 ( 33.33) [0, 2, 0, 0, 1] [11, 40] 0.00 ( 0.00) [0, 1, 0, 0, 0]
まぁ1位と2位の差が開いていれば、とにかく2位のプレイヤーより上になればいいのだから簡単。
2位との点差が近ければ近いほど勝ちやすくなる。それでも勝率はせいぜい40%程度まで、と低め。
あとは1位と2位の点差が大きくないとき。やっぱり7点くらいは離れていないとその間に入り込める確率は低くなるようだ。
なんにせよ、第4ラウンド終了時は3位になっているより2位になっている方が勝ちやすいようなので第4ラウンド時点でも最中限を目指すようにカードを選択すべきなようだ。