前回の４ラウンド終了時にどんな点差になっているのが理想的なのか - すぎゃーんメモの結果を元に(500000回でやり直してみたけど)、
第４ラウンド終了時で既に単独２位のときにそのまま２位を維持できる割合を求めてみる。
# -*- encoding: utf-8 -*- f = open('result.txt', 'r') total = [] for i in range(50): tmp = [0]*5 total.append(tmp) while 1: l = f.readline() if not l: break left = l[0:l.index(':') - 1] score = [int(x) for x in left.split(',')] right = l[l.index(':') + 2:] result = [int(x) for x in right[right.index('[')+1:right.index(']')].split(',')] # 単独２位のとき if (score[0] * score[1] < 0): for i in range(5): total[abs(score[0]-score[1])][i] += result[i] for i in range(len(total)): if sum(total[i]) > 0: win = 100.0 * (total[i][3]+total[i][4]) / sum(total[i]) win2 = 100.0 * total[i][4] / sum(total[i]) print '%2d' % i, '%6.2f' % win, '(%6.2f)' % win2, total[i]
１位のプレイヤーと３位のプレイヤーの点差ごとにまとめてみた結果は以下。
2 53.97 ( 53.33) [11, 638, 0, 9, 752] 3 53.43 ( 51.89) [39, 1171, 0, 40, 1348] 4 55.44 ( 52.75) [72, 1550, 0, 98, 1920] 5 56.99 ( 53.45) [128, 1877, 0, 165, 2492] 6 59.06 ( 55.30) [176, 1994, 0, 199, 2931] 7 63.48 ( 58.77) [202, 2041, 0, 289, 3609] 8 66.14 ( 61.54) [197, 2035, 0, 303, 4057] 9 68.65 ( 63.80) [184, 2090, 0, 352, 4628] 10 72.22 ( 67.11) [138, 2016, 0, 397, 5204] 11 74.37 ( 69.63) [96, 1979, 0, 384, 5638] 12 77.70 ( 73.14) [37, 1771, 0, 369, 5929] 13 80.41 ( 76.10) [10, 1628, 0, 360, 6362] 14 81.58 ( 77.33) [0, 1553, 0, 359, 6521] 15 85.01 ( 81.36) [0, 1295, 0, 315, 7028] 16 85.96 ( 82.70) [0, 1141, 0, 265, 6721] 17 87.57 ( 84.13) [0, 936, 0, 259, 6333] 18 89.77 ( 87.15) [0, 678, 0, 174, 5778] 19 89.58 ( 87.08) [0, 601, 0, 144, 5022] 20 89.41 ( 87.29) [0, 519, 0, 104, 4279] 21 90.46 ( 88.14) [0, 391, 0, 95, 3612] 22 91.01 ( 89.17) [0, 318, 0, 65, 3154] 23 91.49 ( 89.89) [0, 255, 0, 48, 2695] 24 92.10 ( 90.66) [0, 187, 0, 34, 2146] 25 92.13 ( 90.46) [0, 160, 0, 34, 1840] 26 93.32 ( 92.25) [0, 106, 0, 17, 1465] 27 92.33 ( 91.11) [0, 88, 0, 14, 1045] 28 92.40 ( 90.54) [0, 61, 0, 15, 727] 29 95.33 ( 94.32) [0, 28, 0, 6, 565] 30 94.57 ( 93.21) [0, 20, 0, 5, 343] 31 93.46 ( 91.92) [0, 17, 0, 4, 239] 32 96.41 ( 95.38) [0, 7, 0, 2, 186] 33 96.64 ( 94.63) [0, 5, 0, 3, 141] 34 96.81 ( 96.81) [0, 3, 0, 0, 91] 35 96.88 ( 96.88) [0, 2, 0, 0, 62] 36 92.68 ( 92.68) [0, 3, 0, 0, 38] 37 96.30 ( 96.30) [0, 1, 0, 0, 26] 38 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 16] 39 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 16] 40 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 7] 41 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 2] 42 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 1] 43 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 1]
まぁ当然のごとく１位と３位の差が大きければ大きいほど自分の勝率は上がる。当たり前か。
問題はその差の中で自分のスコアがどの位置にいるか、による影響か。
たとえ１位と３位が37点離れていても自分の点数がどちらかに近ければ１位や３位に変わってしまいやすいだろうから。
そのへんをkwsk解析していく。
2 1: 1 53.97 ( 53.33) [11, 638, 0, 9, 752] 3 1: 2 52.31 ( 50.77) [20, 600, 0, 20, 660] 2: 1 54.55 ( 53.00) [19, 571, 0, 20, 688] 4 1: 3 57.78 ( 55.04) [26, 468, 0, 32, 644] 2: 2 52.76 ( 50.20) [23, 567, 0, 32, 627] 3: 1 55.94 ( 53.15) [23, 515, 0, 34, 649] 5 1: 4 58.66 ( 56.64) [33, 437, 0, 23, 644] 2: 3 55.55 ( 51.18) [30, 479, 0, 50, 586] 3: 2 56.26 ( 52.32) [29, 471, 0, 45, 598] 4: 1 57.48 ( 53.68) [36, 490, 0, 47, 664] 6 1: 5 60.87 ( 56.74) [28, 370, 0, 42, 577] 2: 4 54.44 ( 51.32) [34, 433, 0, 32, 526] 3: 3 59.22 ( 55.96) [38, 424, 0, 37, 634] 4: 2 59.93 ( 55.19) [29, 403, 0, 51, 595] 5: 1 60.74 ( 57.21) [47, 364, 0, 37, 599] 7 1: 6 65.27 ( 60.86) [25, 306, 0, 42, 580] 2: 5 62.06 ( 56.96) [41, 354, 0, 53, 593] 3: 4 61.27 ( 56.44) [29, 356, 0, 48, 561] 4: 3 63.36 ( 59.46) [34, 361, 0, 42, 641] 5: 2 62.43 ( 57.86) [42, 369, 0, 50, 633] 6: 1 66.77 ( 61.26) [31, 295, 0, 54, 601] 8 1: 7 66.74 ( 62.74) [34, 265, 0, 36, 564] 2: 6 65.33 ( 59.85) [20, 309, 0, 52, 568] 3: 5 63.27 ( 57.96) [41, 305, 0, 50, 546] 4: 4 65.17 ( 59.98) [29, 313, 0, 51, 589] 5: 3 63.68 ( 60.15) [23, 326, 0, 34, 578] 6: 2 67.71 ( 63.66) [27, 284, 0, 39, 613] 7: 1 71.43 ( 66.85) [23, 233, 0, 41, 599] 9 1: 8 69.37 ( 64.39) [30, 234, 0, 43, 555] 2: 7 67.76 ( 63.36) [21, 294, 0, 43, 619] 3: 6 68.08 ( 62.57) [27, 251, 0, 48, 545] 4: 5 65.54 ( 59.67) [21, 296, 0, 54, 549] 5: 4 64.57 ( 59.68) [25, 308, 0, 46, 561] 6: 3 69.40 ( 63.06) [17, 263, 0, 58, 577] 7: 2 72.05 ( 67.48) [22, 229, 0, 41, 606] 8: 1 72.90 ( 70.72) [21, 215, 0, 19, 616] 10 1: 9 75.64 ( 72.97) [17, 193, 0, 23, 629] 2: 8 77.50 ( 72.74) [13, 176, 0, 40, 611] 3: 7 73.36 ( 66.59) [12, 216, 0, 58, 570] 4: 6 68.68 ( 61.21) [16, 269, 0, 68, 557] 5: 5 68.33 ( 63.03) [22, 277, 0, 50, 595] 6: 4 69.53 ( 62.21) [18, 244, 0, 63, 535] 7: 3 70.04 ( 65.10) [22, 233, 0, 42, 554] 8: 2 73.44 ( 69.78) [15, 210, 0, 31, 591] 9: 1 74.39 ( 71.59) [3, 198, 0, 22, 562] 11 1:10 77.17 ( 74.97) [11, 155, 0, 16, 545] 2: 9 76.88 ( 72.36) [8, 176, 0, 36, 576] 3: 8 72.41 ( 67.68) [14, 231, 0, 42, 601] 4: 7 74.30 ( 68.13) [9, 220, 0, 55, 607] 5: 6 72.47 ( 66.24) [13, 221, 0, 53, 563] 6: 5 70.96 ( 65.83) [10, 245, 0, 45, 578] 7: 4 71.41 ( 64.89) [7, 234, 0, 55, 547] 8: 3 75.76 ( 70.50) [10, 188, 0, 43, 576] 9: 2 76.09 ( 73.84) [9, 172, 0, 17, 559] 10: 1 78.15 ( 74.77) [5, 137, 0, 22, 486] 12 1:11 81.41 ( 79.06) [1, 110, 0, 14, 472] 2:10 81.65 ( 78.09) [6, 123, 0, 25, 549] 3: 9 80.16 ( 74.70) [5, 144, 0, 41, 561] 4: 8 77.62 ( 71.53) [4, 180, 0, 50, 588] 5: 7 75.26 ( 68.84) [3, 209, 0, 55, 590] 6: 6 72.86 ( 67.43) [3, 222, 0, 45, 559] 7: 5 77.13 ( 71.21) [5, 188, 0, 50, 601] 8: 4 78.54 ( 72.40) [1, 170, 0, 49, 577] 9: 3 75.29 ( 72.50) [4, 164, 0, 19, 493] 10: 2 79.57 ( 77.27) [1, 132, 0, 15, 503] 11: 1 76.87 ( 75.83) [4, 129, 0, 6, 436] 13 1:12 81.04 ( 80.00) [0, 109, 0, 6, 460] 2:11 83.23 ( 81.21) [1, 107, 0, 13, 523] 3:10 81.83 ( 77.88) [1, 114, 0, 25, 493] 4: 9 81.69 ( 76.39) [0, 145, 0, 42, 605] 5: 8 82.89 ( 76.23) [2, 134, 0, 53, 606] 6: 7 80.51 ( 73.67) [0, 168, 0, 59, 635] 7: 6 80.90 ( 75.00) [1, 164, 0, 51, 648] 8: 5 78.82 ( 72.03) [0, 162, 0, 52, 551] 9: 4 77.33 ( 72.04) [3, 160, 0, 38, 518] 10: 3 78.63 ( 76.74) [1, 146, 0, 13, 528] 11: 2 76.81 ( 75.75) [1, 130, 0, 6, 428] 12: 1 80.57 ( 80.13) [0, 89, 0, 2, 367] 14 1:13 83.10 ( 82.75) [0, 97, 0, 2, 475] 2:12 81.47 ( 80.22) [0, 103, 0, 7, 446] 3:11 82.48 ( 78.10) [0, 116, 0, 29, 517] 4:10 81.96 ( 78.59) [0, 118, 0, 22, 514] 5: 9 84.86 ( 77.57) [0, 112, 0, 54, 574] 6: 8 83.42 ( 77.68) [0, 127, 0, 44, 595] 7: 7 80.37 ( 74.78) [0, 158, 0, 45, 602] 8: 6 80.02 ( 74.03) [0, 160, 0, 48, 593] 9: 5 82.76 ( 76.21) [0, 121, 0, 46, 535] 10: 4 81.51 ( 76.71) [0, 135, 0, 35, 560] 11: 3 78.64 ( 76.24) [0, 116, 0, 13, 414] 12: 2 80.04 ( 77.93) [0, 104, 0, 11, 406] 13: 1 77.31 ( 76.52) [0, 86, 0, 3, 290] 15 1:14 80.04 ( 79.83) [0, 92, 0, 1, 368] 2:13 83.97 ( 82.88) [0, 88, 0, 6, 455] 3:12 87.97 ( 84.55) [0, 74, 0, 21, 520] 4:11 87.85 ( 83.64) [0, 78, 0, 27, 537] 5:10 86.99 ( 81.75) [0, 92, 0, 37, 578] 6: 9 86.19 ( 81.23) [0, 103, 0, 37, 606] 7: 8 88.17 ( 84.19) [0, 92, 0, 31, 655] 8: 7 86.03 ( 79.80) [0, 112, 0, 50, 640] 9: 6 86.98 ( 80.05) [0, 107, 0, 57, 658] 10: 5 84.42 ( 81.53) [0, 108, 0, 20, 565] 11: 4 82.49 ( 80.20) [0, 107, 0, 14, 490] 12: 3 80.66 ( 78.72) [0, 100, 0, 10, 407] 13: 2 81.38 ( 80.36) [0, 73, 0, 4, 315] 14: 1 77.23 ( 77.23) [0, 69, 0, 0, 234] 16 1:15 81.59 ( 80.85) [0, 74, 0, 3, 325] 2:14 79.10 ( 77.91) [0, 88, 0, 5, 328] 3:13 84.48 ( 82.46) [0, 77, 0, 10, 409] 4:12 86.36 ( 81.87) [0, 73, 0, 24, 438] 5:11 91.04 ( 87.17) [0, 51, 0, 22, 496] 6:10 90.71 ( 85.98) [0, 55, 0, 28, 509] 7: 9 90.37 ( 86.39) [0, 63, 0, 26, 565] 8: 8 89.41 ( 84.98) [0, 74, 0, 31, 594] 9: 7 89.15 ( 83.14) [0, 83, 0, 46, 636] 10: 6 86.88 ( 83.17) [0, 92, 0, 26, 583] 11: 5 84.85 ( 81.14) [0, 98, 0, 24, 525] 12: 4 82.43 ( 80.75) [0, 94, 0, 9, 432] 13: 3 83.13 ( 81.50) [0, 83, 0, 8, 401] 14: 2 79.78 ( 78.95) [0, 73, 0, 3, 285] 15: 1 75.58 ( 75.58) [0, 63, 0, 0, 195] 17 1:16 76.28 ( 75.96) [0, 74, 0, 1, 237] 2:15 83.94 ( 82.82) [0, 57, 0, 4, 294] 3:14 85.41 ( 84.32) [0, 54, 0, 4, 312] 4:13 87.35 ( 83.45) [0, 52, 0, 16, 343] 5:12 87.65 ( 85.47) [0, 51, 0, 9, 353] 6:11 89.26 ( 84.29) [0, 54, 0, 25, 424] 7:10 92.39 ( 85.66) [0, 43, 0, 38, 484] 8: 9 92.16 ( 87.30) [0, 50, 0, 31, 557] 9: 8 92.74 ( 88.00) [0, 49, 0, 32, 594] 10: 7 91.86 ( 87.21) [0, 56, 0, 32, 600] 11: 6 87.81 ( 82.10) [0, 79, 0, 37, 532] 12: 5 85.07 ( 82.38) [0, 89, 0, 16, 491] 13: 4 85.48 ( 84.23) [0, 70, 0, 6, 406] 14: 3 83.52 ( 82.96) [0, 59, 0, 2, 297] 15: 2 81.49 ( 80.00) [0, 62, 0, 5, 268] 16: 1 79.33 ( 78.77) [0, 37, 0, 1, 141] 18 1:17 86.80 ( 85.28) [0, 26, 0, 3, 168] 2:16 81.59 ( 80.75) [0, 44, 0, 2, 193] 3:15 90.11 ( 88.28) [0, 27, 0, 5, 241] 4:14 85.21 ( 83.80) [0, 42, 0, 4, 238] 5:13 92.97 ( 89.91) [0, 23, 0, 10, 294] 6:12 91.72 ( 89.64) [0, 28, 0, 7, 303] 7:11 93.78 ( 91.15) [0, 26, 0, 11, 381] 8:10 96.02 ( 92.25) [0, 20, 0, 19, 464] 9: 9 95.34 ( 91.43) [0, 25, 0, 21, 491] 10: 8 93.62 ( 88.62) [0, 37, 0, 29, 514] 11: 7 92.26 ( 87.74) [0, 48, 0, 28, 544] 12: 6 91.57 ( 89.54) [0, 50, 0, 12, 531] 13: 5 84.25 ( 82.35) [0, 83, 0, 10, 434] 14: 4 85.25 ( 83.95) [0, 68, 0, 6, 387] 15: 3 81.87 ( 81.32) [0, 66, 0, 2, 296] 16: 2 83.18 ( 81.36) [0, 37, 0, 4, 179] 17: 1 81.21 ( 80.54) [0, 28, 0, 1, 120] 19 1:18 78.81 ( 78.81) [0, 25, 0, 0, 93] 2:17 81.65 ( 81.01) [0, 29, 0, 1, 128] 3:16 79.87 ( 77.92) [0, 31, 0, 3, 120] 4:15 86.52 ( 84.27) [0, 24, 0, 4, 150] 5:14 89.72 ( 87.85) [0, 22, 0, 4, 188] 6:13 91.09 ( 87.45) [0, 22, 0, 9, 216] 7:12 95.80 ( 90.91) [0, 12, 0, 14, 260] 8:11 96.03 ( 92.63) [0, 14, 0, 12, 327] 9:10 96.12 ( 94.06) [0, 17, 0, 9, 412] 10: 9 93.91 ( 91.89) [0, 30, 0, 10, 453] 11: 8 95.05 ( 90.66) [0, 27, 0, 24, 495] 12: 7 91.77 ( 88.68) [0, 48, 0, 18, 517] 13: 6 90.97 ( 88.99) [0, 50, 0, 11, 493] 14: 5 85.32 ( 82.13) [0, 69, 0, 15, 386] 15: 4 80.70 ( 78.95) [0, 77, 0, 7, 315] 16: 3 80.88 ( 80.15) [0, 52, 0, 2, 218] 17: 2 84.93 ( 84.47) [0, 33, 0, 1, 185] 18: 1 77.65 ( 77.65) [0, 19, 0, 0, 66] 20 1:19 75.27 ( 74.19) [0, 23, 0, 1, 69] 2:18 81.11 ( 78.89) [0, 17, 0, 2, 71] 3:17 84.80 ( 84.00) [0, 19, 0, 1, 105] 4:16 88.64 ( 85.61) [0, 15, 0, 4, 113] 5:15 91.14 ( 87.34) [0, 14, 0, 6, 138] 6:14 94.48 ( 91.72) [0, 8, 0, 4, 133] 7:13 95.09 ( 94.48) [0, 8, 0, 1, 154] 8:12 96.82 ( 93.64) [0, 7, 0, 7, 206] 9:11 96.98 ( 94.30) [0, 9, 0, 8, 281] 10:10 96.23 ( 94.20) [0, 13, 0, 7, 325] 11: 9 97.51 ( 94.76) [0, 10, 0, 11, 380] 12: 8 95.48 ( 92.76) [0, 20, 0, 12, 410] 13: 7 90.29 ( 87.96) [0, 50, 0, 12, 453] 14: 6 89.80 ( 87.64) [0, 47, 0, 10, 404] 15: 5 84.45 ( 81.44) [0, 67, 0, 13, 351] 16: 4 81.90 ( 81.31) [0, 61, 0, 2, 274] 17: 3 78.52 ( 78.15) [0, 58, 0, 1, 211] 18: 2 72.28 ( 71.20) [0, 51, 0, 2, 131] 19: 1 76.09 ( 76.09) [0, 22, 0, 0, 70] 21 1:20 60.00 ( 60.00) [0, 14, 0, 0, 21] 2:19 82.46 ( 82.46) [0, 10, 0, 0, 47] 3:18 91.78 ( 84.93) [0, 6, 0, 5, 62] 4:17 91.21 ( 91.21) [0, 8, 0, 0, 83] 5:16 85.23 ( 81.82) [0, 13, 0, 3, 72] 6:15 92.37 ( 88.98) [0, 9, 0, 4, 105] 7:14 94.59 ( 90.09) [0, 6, 0, 5, 100] 8:13 96.67 ( 94.17) [0, 4, 0, 3, 113] 9:12 96.62 ( 91.89) [0, 5, 0, 7, 136] 10:11 98.70 ( 98.26) [0, 3, 0, 1, 226] 11:10 98.93 ( 95.73) [0, 3, 0, 9, 269] 12: 9 97.43 ( 94.57) [0, 9, 0, 10, 331] 13: 8 96.09 ( 93.64) [0, 16, 0, 10, 383] 14: 7 91.21 ( 89.23) [0, 40, 0, 9, 406] 15: 6 90.47 ( 88.37) [0, 41, 0, 9, 380] 16: 5 86.91 ( 84.44) [0, 53, 0, 10, 342] 17: 4 82.55 ( 80.06) [0, 56, 0, 8, 257] 18: 3 74.62 ( 73.60) [0, 50, 0, 2, 145] 19: 2 77.94 ( 77.94) [0, 30, 0, 0, 106] 20: 1 65.12 ( 65.12) [0, 15, 0, 0, 28] 22 1:21 73.33 ( 73.33) [0, 8, 0, 0, 22] 2:20 80.00 ( 80.00) [0, 8, 0, 0, 32] 3:19 82.00 ( 82.00) [0, 9, 0, 0, 41] 4:18 96.08 ( 94.12) [0, 2, 0, 1, 48] 5:17 88.71 ( 85.48) [0, 7, 0, 2, 53] 6:16 90.91 ( 87.01) [0, 7, 0, 3, 67] 7:15 93.55 ( 91.40) [0, 6, 0, 2, 85] 8:14 94.52 ( 94.52) [0, 4, 0, 0, 69] 9:13 97.17 ( 97.17) [0, 3, 0, 0, 103] 10:12 99.04 ( 96.15) [0, 1, 0, 3, 100] 11:11 100.00 ( 98.97) [0, 0, 0, 2, 193] 12:10 97.70 ( 96.31) [0, 5, 0, 3, 209] 13: 9 98.29 ( 96.58) [0, 5, 0, 5, 282] 14: 8 93.73 ( 91.64) [0, 24, 0, 8, 351] 15: 7 88.44 ( 85.75) [0, 43, 0, 10, 319] 16: 6 91.11 ( 89.14) [0, 36, 0, 8, 361] 17: 5 88.70 ( 87.01) [0, 40, 0, 6, 308] 18: 4 84.81 ( 81.48) [0, 41, 0, 9, 220] 19: 3 82.18 ( 80.69) [0, 36, 0, 3, 163] 20: 2 77.50 ( 77.50) [0, 27, 0, 0, 93] 21: 1 85.37 ( 85.37) [0, 6, 0, 0, 35] 23 1:22 88.24 ( 88.24) [0, 2, 0, 0, 15] 2:21 78.26 ( 69.57) [0, 5, 0, 2, 16] 3:20 78.57 ( 78.57) [0, 6, 0, 0, 22] 4:19 91.30 ( 91.30) [0, 4, 0, 0, 42] 5:18 93.48 ( 91.30) [0, 3, 0, 1, 42] 6:17 95.74 ( 95.74) [0, 2, 0, 0, 45] 7:16 94.64 ( 91.07) [0, 3, 0, 2, 51] 8:15 97.50 ( 96.25) [0, 2, 0, 1, 77] 9:14 98.63 ( 97.26) [0, 1, 0, 1, 71] 10:13 98.61 ( 98.61) [0, 1, 0, 0, 71] 11:12 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 102] 12:11 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 159] 13:10 99.04 ( 98.08) [0, 2, 0, 2, 204] 14: 9 95.88 ( 93.81) [0, 12, 0, 6, 273] 15: 8 95.82 ( 94.43) [0, 12, 0, 4, 271] 16: 7 90.24 ( 87.28) [0, 33, 0, 10, 295] 17: 6 87.38 ( 83.50) [0, 39, 0, 12, 258] 18: 5 86.51 ( 84.54) [0, 41, 0, 6, 257] 19: 4 83.70 ( 83.26) [0, 37, 0, 1, 189] 20: 3 82.66 ( 82.66) [0, 30, 0, 0, 143] 21: 2 84.09 ( 84.09) [0, 14, 0, 0, 74] 22: 1 75.00 ( 75.00) [0, 6, 0, 0, 18] 24 1:23 77.78 ( 77.78) [0, 2, 0, 0, 7] 2:22 83.33 ( 83.33) [0, 3, 0, 0, 15] 3:21 95.45 ( 95.45) [0, 1, 0, 0, 21] 4:20 89.29 ( 89.29) [0, 3, 0, 0, 25] 5:19 90.62 ( 84.38) [0, 3, 0, 2, 27] 6:18 90.00 ( 87.50) [0, 4, 0, 1, 35] 7:17 96.23 ( 92.45) [0, 2, 0, 2, 49] 8:16 96.83 ( 95.24) [0, 2, 0, 1, 60] 9:15 96.30 ( 96.30) [0, 2, 0, 0, 52] 10:14 98.36 ( 96.72) [0, 1, 0, 1, 59] 11:13 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 63] 12:12 100.00 ( 98.08) [0, 0, 0, 1, 51] 13:11 99.18 ( 98.36) [0, 1, 0, 1, 120] 14:10 99.34 ( 98.68) [0, 1, 0, 1, 149] 15: 9 97.24 ( 94.47) [0, 6, 0, 6, 205] 16: 8 95.59 ( 94.71) [0, 10, 0, 2, 215] 17: 7 94.67 ( 93.44) [0, 13, 0, 3, 228] 18: 6 89.80 ( 87.45) [0, 26, 0, 6, 223] 19: 5 88.70 ( 86.61) [0, 27, 0, 5, 207] 20: 4 80.92 ( 79.77) [0, 33, 0, 2, 138] 21: 3 84.17 ( 84.17) [0, 22, 0, 0, 117] 22: 2 76.32 ( 76.32) [0, 18, 0, 0, 58] 23: 1 75.86 ( 75.86) [0, 7, 0, 0, 22] 25 1:24 66.67 ( 66.67) [0, 1, 0, 0, 2] 2:23 100.00 ( 87.50) [0, 0, 0, 1, 7] 3:22 87.50 ( 81.25) [0, 2, 0, 1, 13] 4:21 69.23 ( 69.23) [0, 4, 0, 0, 9] 5:20 85.19 ( 85.19) [0, 4, 0, 0, 23] 6:19 91.43 ( 91.43) [0, 3, 0, 0, 32] 7:18 92.00 ( 92.00) [0, 2, 0, 0, 23] 8:17 96.49 ( 94.74) [0, 2, 0, 1, 54] 9:16 98.21 ( 98.21) [0, 1, 0, 0, 55] 10:15 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 48] 11:14 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 38] 12:13 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 42] 13:12 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 64] 14:11 97.89 ( 97.89) [0, 2, 0, 0, 93] 15:10 98.64 ( 98.64) [0, 2, 0, 0, 145] 16: 9 98.78 ( 95.12) [0, 2, 0, 6, 156] 17: 8 95.67 ( 94.37) [0, 10, 0, 3, 218] 18: 7 95.00 ( 92.00) [0, 10, 0, 6, 184] 19: 6 90.64 ( 88.18) [0, 19, 0, 5, 179] 20: 5 87.75 ( 85.29) [0, 25, 0, 5, 174] 21: 4 79.86 ( 78.47) [0, 29, 0, 2, 113] 22: 3 78.40 ( 75.20) [0, 27, 0, 4, 94] 23: 2 82.67 ( 82.67) [0, 13, 0, 0, 62] 24: 1 85.71 ( 85.71) [0, 2, 0, 0, 12] 26 1:25 50.00 ( 50.00) [0, 1, 0, 0, 1] 2:24 85.71 ( 71.43) [0, 1, 0, 1, 5] 3:23 77.78 ( 55.56) [0, 2, 0, 2, 5] 4:22 66.67 ( 66.67) [0, 3, 0, 0, 6] 5:21 93.75 ( 93.75) [0, 1, 0, 0, 15] 6:20 91.67 ( 91.67) [0, 1, 0, 0, 11] 7:19 89.66 ( 89.66) [0, 3, 0, 0, 26] 8:18 97.14 ( 97.14) [0, 1, 0, 0, 34] 9:17 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 42] 10:16 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 46] 11:15 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 46] 12:14 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 33] 13:13 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 35] 14:12 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 42] 15:11 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 75] 16:10 99.03 ( 99.03) [0, 1, 0, 0, 102] 17: 9 97.62 ( 97.62) [0, 3, 0, 0, 123] 18: 8 94.74 ( 94.74) [0, 7, 0, 0, 126] 19: 7 94.44 ( 92.36) [0, 8, 0, 3, 133] 20: 6 92.39 ( 89.13) [0, 14, 0, 6, 164] 21: 5 85.56 ( 84.44) [0, 26, 0, 2, 152] 22: 4 88.55 ( 86.26) [0, 15, 0, 3, 113] 23: 3 88.75 ( 88.75) [0, 9, 0, 0, 71] 24: 2 85.42 ( 85.42) [0, 7, 0, 0, 41] 25: 1 85.71 ( 85.71) [0, 3, 0, 0, 18] ...
うーん、これはどう取ればいいんだろう。
１位と３位のちょうど中間にいる方が勝率が高いときもあれば、どちらかに近い方が高いときもある。
ラウンドあたりの得点として７点が入る確率が一番高いからか？
というわけで１位と３位が14点くらい離れていれば自分が真ん中にいた方が勝ちやすいが、
それ以下の点差の場合はどちらかに偏っていた方が勝ちやすいようだ。
とは言えそれほど大差ないし、そもそも最終ターン以外はランダムでの実験だから、実際はもっと違うのかも…
やっぱり他の人々がみんなやってるように全探索とかやった方がいいのかなぁ
