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第4ラウンド終了時に点数が単独3位のときに2位にあがれる確率

もしも第4ラウンド終了時のスコアが単独3位だと結果にどういう影響がでるのか。

# -*- encoding: utf-8 -*-

for diff in range(30):
    print diff
    f = open('result.txt', 'r')
    while 1:
        l = f.readline()
        if not l:
            break
        left = l[0:l.index(':') - 1]
        score = [int(x) for x in left.split(',')]
        right = l[l.index(':') + 2:]
        result = [int(x) for x in right[right.index('[')+1:right.index(']')].split(',')]
        if (score[0] > 0) & (score[0] < 14) & (score[1] > 0) & (score[1] - score[0] == diff):
            win1 = 100.0 * (result[3] + result[4]) / sum(result)
            win2 = 100.0 * (result[4]) / sum(result)
            print '[%2d, %2d] %6.2f (%6.2f)' % (score[0], score[1], win1, win2), result

1位のプレイヤーと2位のプレイヤーの点差ごとにまとめてみる。
[2位との点差, 1位との点差] 最終結果で最中限になっている確率(単独2位で最中限になっている確率)

0
[ 1,  1]   8.18 (  8.18) [196, 429, 4, 0, 56]
[ 2,  2]   8.05 (  8.05) [210, 406, 12, 0, 55]
[ 3,  3]   8.35 (  7.91) [195, 418, 24, 3, 55]
[ 4,  4]   8.60 (  8.28) [169, 380, 14, 2, 51]
[ 5,  5]   7.42 (  6.36) [158, 333, 33, 6, 36]
[ 6,  6]   5.45 (  4.89) [177, 296, 30, 3, 26]
[ 7,  7]   5.56 (  4.44) [131, 274, 20, 5, 20]
[ 8,  8]   6.94 (  5.59) [131, 262, 23, 6, 25]
[ 9,  9]   3.08 (  2.64) [115, 306, 20, 2, 12]
[10, 10]   2.30 (  1.28) [109, 261, 13, 4, 5]
[11, 11]   2.05 (  0.77) [105, 263, 14, 5, 3]
[12, 12]   0.33 (  0.00) [84, 211, 5, 1, 0]
[13, 13]   0.00 (  0.00) [78, 200, 0, 0, 0]
1
[ 1,  2]  10.20 (  7.95) [1, 1241, 0, 31, 110]
[ 2,  3]  12.61 (  8.30) [1, 1094, 0, 54, 104]
[ 3,  4]  13.80 (  6.73) [0, 1024, 0, 84, 80]
[ 4,  5]  16.67 (  7.17) [1, 964, 0, 110, 83]
[ 5,  6]  18.89 (  6.30) [2, 874, 0, 136, 68]
[ 6,  7]  18.41 (  5.31) [3, 826, 0, 133, 54]
[ 7,  8]  16.79 (  3.23) [3, 770, 0, 126, 30]
[ 8,  9]  14.40 (  3.16) [1, 730, 0, 96, 27]
[ 9, 10]  12.44 (  1.40) [0, 690, 0, 87, 11]
[10, 11]   9.62 (  1.24) [2, 656, 0, 61, 9]
[11, 12]   4.86 (  0.16) [1, 606, 0, 30, 1]
[12, 13]   1.75 (  0.16) [1, 618, 0, 10, 1]
[13, 14]   0.55 (  0.00) [1, 539, 0, 3, 0]
2
[ 1,  3]  13.24 (  9.97) [16, 1124, 0, 43, 131]
[ 2,  4]  15.50 ( 10.62) [7, 1067, 0, 62, 135]
[ 3,  5]  18.86 ( 11.64) [11, 944, 0, 85, 137]
[ 4,  6]  19.85 ( 10.02) [8, 840, 0, 104, 106]
[ 5,  7]  25.79 ( 12.63) [3, 702, 0, 125, 120]
[ 6,  8]  23.93 ( 12.58) [5, 739, 0, 111, 123]
[ 7,  9]  20.60 ( 10.61) [7, 756, 0, 96, 102]
[ 8, 10]  18.71 (  8.70) [2, 680, 0, 84, 73]
[ 9, 11]  15.28 (  6.21) [5, 677, 0, 73, 50]
[10, 12]   8.43 (  2.29) [4, 637, 0, 43, 16]
[11, 13]   5.60 (  1.82) [4, 620, 0, 25, 12]
[12, 14]   1.21 (  0.00) [4, 566, 0, 7, 0]
[13, 15]   0.37 (  0.00) [2, 531, 0, 2, 0]
3
[ 1,  4]  17.34 ( 12.41) [16, 990, 0, 60, 151]
[ 2,  5]  20.82 ( 14.73) [14, 857, 0, 67, 162]
[ 3,  6]  24.89 ( 17.53) [11, 816, 0, 81, 193]
[ 4,  7]  27.41 ( 16.81) [10, 737, 0, 109, 173]
[ 5,  8]  32.00 ( 21.37) [8, 708, 0, 112, 225]
[ 6,  9]  25.37 ( 14.93) [12, 688, 0, 98, 140]
[ 7, 10]  27.57 ( 17.63) [12, 637, 0, 89, 158]
[ 8, 11]  21.77 ( 13.30) [8, 639, 0, 70, 110]
[ 9, 12]  15.28 (  9.25) [11, 621, 0, 45, 69]
[10, 13]   7.15 (  3.73) [5, 618, 0, 23, 25]
[11, 14]   3.81 (  1.83) [7, 624, 0, 13, 12]
[12, 15]   1.36 (  0.00) [5, 577, 0, 8, 0]
[13, 16]   0.22 (  0.00) [7, 446, 0, 1, 0]
4
[ 1,  5]  21.55 ( 16.22) [23, 920, 0, 64, 195]
[ 2,  6]  25.14 ( 18.19) [14, 805, 0, 76, 199]
[ 3,  7]  28.88 ( 21.16) [13, 733, 0, 81, 222]
[ 4,  8]  31.85 ( 23.13) [17, 640, 0, 84, 223]
[ 5,  9]  33.17 ( 23.30) [16, 661, 0, 100, 236]
[ 6, 10]  31.16 ( 22.48) [9, 625, 0, 80, 207]
[ 7, 11]  25.54 ( 19.50) [7, 646, 0, 53, 171]
[ 8, 12]  22.45 ( 15.61) [20, 581, 0, 53, 121]
[ 9, 13]  14.54 (  9.44) [15, 655, 0, 40, 74]
[10, 14]   7.59 (  3.58) [11, 634, 0, 28, 25]
[11, 15]   4.41 (  1.10) [12, 595, 0, 21, 7]
[12, 16]   1.60 (  0.60) [13, 480, 0, 5, 3]
[13, 17]   0.99 (  0.00) [8, 394, 0, 4, 0]
5
[ 1,  6]  23.80 ( 15.87) [22, 727, 0, 78, 156]
[ 2,  7]  28.81 ( 22.30) [35, 731, 0, 70, 240]
[ 3,  8]  35.32 ( 28.83) [27, 590, 0, 62, 275]
[ 4,  9]  34.39 ( 26.56) [22, 598, 0, 74, 251]
[ 5, 10]  36.80 ( 29.22) [20, 564, 0, 70, 270]
[ 6, 11]  32.47 ( 26.26) [21, 555, 0, 53, 224]
[ 7, 12]  24.55 ( 15.81) [27, 560, 0, 68, 123]
[ 8, 13]  23.16 ( 17.37) [19, 565, 0, 44, 132]
[ 9, 14]  16.45 ( 10.23) [14, 631, 0, 48, 79]
[10, 15]   8.21 (  4.93) [14, 601, 0, 22, 33]
[11, 16]   5.28 (  2.29) [19, 519, 0, 17, 13]
[12, 17]   1.21 (  0.24) [8, 400, 0, 4, 1]
[13, 18]   0.91 (  0.00) [13, 314, 0, 3, 0]
6
[ 1,  7]  33.30 ( 28.71) [32, 637, 0, 46, 288]
[ 2,  8]  35.38 ( 28.83) [20, 621, 0, 65, 286]
[ 3,  9]  35.91 ( 30.38) [32, 582, 0, 53, 291]
[ 4, 10]  36.53 ( 30.48) [24, 532, 0, 53, 267]
[ 5, 11]  36.51 ( 29.64) [28, 499, 0, 57, 246]
[ 6, 12]  32.68 ( 26.70) [19, 566, 0, 52, 232]
[ 7, 13]  28.83 ( 22.07) [20, 570, 0, 56, 183]
[ 8, 14]  20.93 ( 16.02) [30, 582, 0, 38, 124]
[ 9, 15]  15.25 (  9.34) [22, 595, 0, 43, 68]
[10, 16]   8.10 (  3.80) [15, 541, 0, 26, 23]
[11, 17]   3.28 (  1.54) [8, 494, 0, 9, 8]
[12, 18]   0.63 (  0.32) [6, 309, 0, 1, 1]
[13, 19]   0.00 (  0.00) [10, 215, 0, 0, 0]
7
[ 1,  8]  37.24 ( 31.89) [32, 590, 0, 53, 316]
[ 2,  9]  37.99 ( 31.62) [31, 524, 0, 57, 283]
[ 3, 10]  38.97 ( 33.37) [22, 523, 0, 50, 298]
[ 4, 11]  40.66 ( 35.70) [28, 474, 0, 42, 302]
[ 5, 12]  37.59 ( 32.98) [24, 504, 0, 39, 279]
[ 6, 13]  32.17 ( 27.16) [28, 554, 0, 43, 233]
[ 7, 14]  24.91 ( 21.15) [22, 578, 0, 30, 169]
[ 8, 15]  19.95 ( 15.47) [39, 639, 0, 38, 131]
[ 9, 16]  14.50 (  9.77) [17, 543, 0, 31, 64]
[10, 17]   8.14 (  4.25) [18, 501, 0, 22, 24]
[11, 18]   3.29 (  1.01) [9, 373, 0, 9, 4]
[12, 19]   1.45 (  1.09) [5, 266, 0, 1, 3]
[13, 20]   0.60 (  0.00) [4, 161, 0, 1, 0]
8
[ 1,  9]  37.49 ( 33.26) [29, 548, 0, 39, 307]
[ 2, 10]  39.60 ( 36.39) [25, 483, 0, 27, 306]
[ 3, 11]  41.04 ( 37.29) [15, 472, 0, 31, 308]
[ 4, 12]  40.22 ( 37.25) [33, 450, 0, 24, 301]
[ 5, 13]  36.81 ( 32.16) [27, 476, 0, 37, 256]
[ 6, 14]  30.57 ( 27.52) [25, 520, 0, 24, 216]
[ 7, 15]  27.74 ( 21.11) [24, 510, 0, 49, 156]
[ 8, 16]  21.65 ( 15.73) [14, 529, 0, 41, 109]
[ 9, 17]  11.20 (  5.76) [12, 543, 0, 34, 36]
[10, 18]   7.23 (  4.49) [15, 460, 0, 14, 23]
[11, 19]   3.88 (  1.66) [18, 329, 0, 8, 6]
[12, 20]   1.40 (  0.93) [8, 204, 0, 1, 2]
[13, 21]   0.80 (  0.00) [5, 119, 0, 1, 0]
9
[ 1, 10]  40.55 ( 38.21) [20, 411, 0, 17, 277]
[ 2, 11]  44.26 ( 41.04) [19, 379, 0, 23, 293]
[ 3, 12]  41.99 ( 40.18) [25, 424, 0, 14, 311]
[ 4, 13]  38.12 ( 35.51) [17, 457, 0, 20, 272]
[ 5, 14]  37.68 ( 33.89) [17, 428, 0, 27, 242]
[ 6, 15]  33.54 ( 28.41) [19, 512, 0, 41, 227]
[ 7, 16]  22.94 ( 17.48) [17, 534, 0, 39, 125]
[ 8, 17]  20.06 ( 14.33) [16, 514, 0, 38, 95]
[ 9, 18]  12.73 (  8.32) [7, 507, 0, 26, 49]
[10, 19]   8.13 (  4.51) [11, 396, 0, 16, 20]
[11, 20]   3.00 (  1.67) [7, 284, 0, 4, 5]
[12, 21]   0.52 (  0.52) [2, 190, 0, 0, 1]
[13, 22]   0.00 (  0.00) [2, 96, 0, 0, 0]
10
[ 1, 11]  39.94 ( 38.43) [7, 390, 0, 10, 254]
[ 2, 12]  43.86 ( 41.79) [8, 344, 0, 13, 262]
[ 3, 13]  39.94 ( 38.91) [6, 400, 0, 7, 263]
[ 4, 14]  39.49 ( 36.81) [13, 370, 0, 17, 233]
[ 5, 15]  35.88 ( 31.64) [9, 445, 0, 30, 224]
[ 6, 16]  29.54 ( 24.37) [12, 465, 0, 35, 165]
[ 7, 17]  23.84 ( 19.46) [15, 525, 0, 31, 138]
[ 8, 18]  17.92 ( 14.01) [11, 493, 0, 24, 86]
[ 9, 19]  12.42 (  7.04) [12, 411, 0, 26, 34]
[10, 20]   6.12 (  2.45) [1, 306, 0, 12, 8]
[11, 21]   4.00 (  0.44) [8, 208, 0, 8, 1]
[12, 22]   1.38 (  0.00) [2, 141, 0, 2, 0]
[13, 23]   0.00 (  0.00) [2, 68, 0, 0, 0]
11
[ 1, 12]  43.41 ( 43.06) [2, 320, 0, 2, 245]
[ 2, 13]  41.74 ( 41.07) [5, 344, 0, 4, 246]
[ 3, 14]  38.99 ( 37.31) [5, 358, 0, 10, 222]
[ 4, 15]  37.82 ( 35.10) [5, 383, 0, 17, 219]
[ 5, 16]  37.84 ( 35.10) [7, 356, 0, 16, 205]
[ 6, 17]  33.18 ( 27.22) [8, 429, 0, 39, 178]
[ 7, 18]  25.44 ( 19.84) [8, 458, 0, 35, 124]
[ 8, 19]  18.74 ( 13.96) [8, 417, 0, 25, 73]
[ 9, 20]  10.05 (  6.62) [4, 363, 0, 14, 27]
[10, 21]   8.03 (  4.38) [2, 250, 0, 10, 12]
[11, 22]   1.80 (  0.00) [0, 164, 0, 3, 0]
[12, 23]   0.00 (  0.00) [1, 102, 0, 0, 0]
[13, 24]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 71, 0, 0, 0]
12
[ 1, 13]  38.11 ( 37.89) [4, 277, 0, 1, 172]
[ 2, 14]  42.74 ( 41.45) [3, 265, 0, 6, 194]
[ 3, 15]  39.31 ( 36.75) [2, 330, 0, 14, 201]
[ 4, 16]  35.92 ( 33.03) [5, 350, 0, 16, 183]
[ 5, 17]  37.86 ( 34.30) [1, 365, 0, 21, 202]
[ 6, 18]  32.71 ( 28.81) [2, 395, 0, 23, 170]
[ 7, 19]  26.25 ( 22.55) [5, 394, 0, 20, 122]
[ 8, 20]  23.18 ( 17.44) [1, 347, 0, 26, 79]
[ 9, 21]  11.58 (  7.39) [1, 358, 0, 17, 30]
[10, 22]   6.13 (  4.60) [1, 244, 0, 4, 12]
[11, 23]   3.31 (  2.21) [1, 174, 0, 2, 4]
[12, 24]   2.27 (  1.14) [0, 86, 0, 1, 1]
[13, 25]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 43, 0, 0, 0]
13
[ 1, 14]  43.27 ( 43.01) [0, 215, 0, 1, 163]
[ 2, 15]  40.10 ( 39.36) [2, 240, 0, 3, 159]
[ 3, 16]  39.54 ( 38.16) [0, 263, 0, 6, 166]
[ 4, 17]  41.95 ( 38.77) [0, 292, 0, 16, 195]
[ 5, 18]  35.73 ( 32.53) [0, 322, 0, 16, 163]
[ 6, 19]  29.45 ( 24.66) [2, 410, 0, 28, 144]
[ 7, 20]  26.62 ( 20.91) [1, 385, 0, 30, 110]
[ 8, 21]  18.34 ( 12.96) [0, 334, 0, 22, 53]
[ 9, 22]  10.07 (  6.25) [0, 259, 0, 11, 18]
[10, 23]   7.83 (  4.61) [1, 199, 0, 7, 10]
[11, 24]   4.20 (  3.36) [0, 114, 0, 1, 4]
[12, 25]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 66, 0, 0, 0]
[13, 26]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 38, 0, 0, 0]
14
[ 1, 15]  40.92 ( 40.92) [0, 179, 0, 0, 124]
[ 2, 16]  39.83 ( 39.54) [0, 210, 0, 1, 138]
[ 3, 17]  41.97 ( 40.77) [0, 242, 0, 5, 170]
[ 4, 18]  38.22 ( 35.01) [0, 270, 0, 14, 153]
[ 5, 19]  36.00 ( 32.63) [0, 304, 0, 16, 155]
[ 6, 20]  35.93 ( 29.44) [0, 296, 0, 30, 136]
[ 7, 21]  24.58 ( 20.97) [0, 356, 0, 17, 99]
[ 8, 22]  14.29 ( 11.43) [0, 270, 0, 9, 36]
[ 9, 23]  15.19 (  8.86) [0, 201, 0, 15, 21]
[10, 24]   7.10 (  5.16) [0, 144, 0, 3, 8]
[11, 25]   4.12 (  1.03) [0, 93, 0, 3, 1]
[12, 26]   1.85 (  0.00) [0, 53, 0, 1, 0]
[13, 27]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 31, 0, 0, 0]
15
[ 1, 16]  47.01 ( 46.64) [0, 142, 0, 1, 125]
[ 2, 17]  45.03 ( 44.72) [0, 177, 0, 1, 144]
[ 3, 18]  43.24 ( 42.06) [0, 193, 0, 4, 143]
[ 4, 19]  39.11 ( 36.87) [0, 218, 0, 8, 132]
[ 5, 20]  38.44 ( 34.79) [0, 253, 0, 15, 143]
[ 6, 21]  28.47 ( 25.28) [0, 314, 0, 14, 111]
[ 7, 22]  25.21 ( 21.25) [0, 264, 0, 14, 75]
[ 8, 23]  14.05 ( 11.44) [0, 263, 0, 8, 35]
[ 9, 24]   8.59 (  6.57) [0, 181, 0, 4, 13]
[10, 25]   4.07 (  1.63) [0, 118, 0, 3, 2]
[11, 26]   3.41 (  3.41) [0, 85, 0, 0, 3]
[12, 27]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 40, 0, 0, 0]
[13, 28]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 23, 0, 0, 0]
16
[ 1, 17]  36.69 ( 35.50) [0, 107, 0, 2, 60]
[ 2, 18]  40.76 ( 40.76) [0, 141, 0, 0, 97]
[ 3, 19]  42.24 ( 40.59) [0, 175, 0, 5, 123]
[ 4, 20]  37.39 ( 34.84) [0, 221, 0, 9, 123]
[ 5, 21]  36.67 ( 33.01) [0, 259, 0, 15, 135]
[ 6, 22]  30.45 ( 24.30) [0, 249, 0, 22, 87]
[ 7, 23]  26.04 ( 21.18) [0, 213, 0, 14, 61]
[ 8, 24]  17.13 ( 15.14) [0, 208, 0, 5, 38]
[ 9, 25]   8.61 (  4.64) [0, 138, 0, 6, 7]
[10, 26]   5.88 (  1.96) [0, 96, 0, 4, 2]
[11, 27]   1.82 (  0.00) [0, 54, 0, 1, 0]
[12, 28]   4.17 (  0.00) [0, 23, 0, 1, 0]
[13, 29]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 22, 0, 0, 0]
17
[ 1, 18]  43.06 ( 43.06) [0, 82, 0, 0, 62]
[ 2, 19]  43.03 ( 43.03) [0, 94, 0, 0, 71]
[ 3, 20]  38.52 ( 35.80) [0, 158, 0, 7, 92]
[ 4, 21]  41.90 ( 39.37) [0, 183, 0, 8, 124]
[ 5, 22]  35.97 ( 32.01) [0, 178, 0, 11, 89]
[ 6, 23]  32.92 ( 26.15) [0, 218, 0, 22, 85]
[ 7, 24]  22.54 ( 19.72) [0, 220, 0, 8, 56]
[ 8, 25]  19.39 ( 11.22) [0, 158, 0, 16, 22]
[ 9, 26]  10.94 (  7.03) [0, 114, 0, 5, 9]
[10, 27]  11.27 (  5.63) [0, 63, 0, 4, 4]
[11, 28]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 49, 0, 0, 0]
[12, 29]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 29, 0, 0, 0]
[13, 30]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 14, 0, 0, 0]
18
[ 1, 19]  46.67 ( 46.67) [0, 56, 0, 0, 49]
[ 2, 20]  44.94 ( 44.30) [0, 87, 0, 1, 70]
[ 3, 21]  41.28 ( 39.91) [0, 128, 0, 3, 87]
[ 4, 22]  41.88 ( 39.71) [0, 161, 0, 6, 110]
[ 5, 23]  32.28 ( 29.47) [0, 193, 0, 8, 84]
[ 6, 24]  31.18 ( 27.60) [0, 192, 0, 10, 77]
[ 7, 25]  20.54 ( 15.18) [0, 178, 0, 12, 34]
[ 8, 26]  16.67 ( 10.90) [0, 130, 0, 9, 17]
[ 9, 27]   9.82 (  3.57) [0, 101, 0, 7, 4]
[10, 28]   4.35 (  2.17) [0, 44, 0, 1, 1]
[11, 29]   2.70 (  2.70) [0, 36, 0, 0, 1]
[12, 30]   3.85 (  0.00) [0, 25, 0, 1, 0]
[13, 31]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 5, 0, 0, 0]
19
[ 1, 20]  34.72 ( 34.72) [0, 47, 0, 0, 25]
[ 2, 21]  36.55 ( 36.55) [0, 92, 0, 0, 53]
[ 3, 22]  41.41 ( 39.90) [0, 116, 0, 3, 79]
[ 4, 23]  34.20 ( 33.77) [0, 152, 0, 1, 78]
[ 5, 24]  35.62 ( 31.33) [0, 150, 0, 10, 73]
[ 6, 25]  30.95 ( 26.19) [0, 145, 0, 10, 55]
[ 7, 26]  22.65 ( 14.92) [0, 140, 0, 14, 27]
[ 8, 27]  17.59 ( 12.96) [0, 89, 0, 5, 14]
[ 9, 28]  10.45 (  5.97) [0, 60, 0, 3, 4]
[10, 29]   6.38 (  4.26) [0, 44, 0, 1, 2]
[11, 30]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 32, 0, 0, 0]
[12, 31]  10.53 ( 10.53) [0, 17, 0, 0, 2]
[13, 32]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 5, 0, 0, 0]
20
[ 1, 21]  41.79 ( 40.30) [0, 39, 0, 1, 27]
[ 2, 22]  35.92 ( 35.92) [0, 66, 0, 0, 37]
[ 3, 23]  44.22 ( 42.18) [0, 82, 0, 3, 62]
[ 4, 24]  40.82 ( 37.76) [0, 116, 0, 6, 74]
[ 5, 25]  37.19 ( 34.67) [0, 125, 0, 5, 69]
[ 6, 26]  27.22 ( 21.52) [0, 115, 0, 9, 34]
[ 7, 27]  28.57 ( 21.85) [0, 85, 0, 8, 26]
[ 8, 28]  15.85 ( 12.20) [0, 69, 0, 3, 10]
[ 9, 29]   6.25 (  6.25) [0, 45, 0, 0, 3]
[10, 30]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 29, 0, 0, 0]
[11, 31]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 17, 0, 0, 0]
[12, 32]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 13, 0, 0, 0]
[13, 33]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 6, 0, 0, 0]
21
[ 1, 22]  44.74 ( 44.74) [0, 21, 0, 0, 17]
[ 2, 23]  44.44 ( 44.44) [0, 55, 0, 0, 44]
[ 3, 24]  36.88 ( 36.17) [0, 89, 0, 1, 51]
[ 4, 25]  36.96 ( 33.33) [0, 87, 0, 5, 46]
[ 5, 26]  31.14 ( 27.54) [0, 115, 0, 6, 46]
[ 6, 27]  27.64 ( 25.20) [0, 89, 0, 3, 31]
[ 7, 28]  27.78 ( 24.44) [0, 65, 0, 3, 22]
[ 8, 29]   9.23 (  6.15) [0, 59, 0, 2, 4]
[ 9, 30]   7.14 (  2.38) [0, 39, 0, 2, 1]
[10, 31]  11.43 (  8.57) [0, 31, 0, 1, 3]
[11, 32]   4.00 (  0.00) [0, 24, 0, 1, 0]
[12, 33]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 12, 0, 0, 0]
[13, 34]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 3, 0, 0, 0]
22
[ 1, 23]  40.00 ( 40.00) [0, 24, 0, 0, 16]
[ 2, 24]  35.14 ( 35.14) [0, 48, 0, 0, 26]
[ 3, 25]  45.54 ( 44.64) [0, 61, 0, 1, 50]
[ 4, 26]  36.64 ( 29.01) [0, 83, 0, 10, 38]
[ 5, 27]  44.03 ( 38.06) [0, 75, 0, 8, 51]
[ 6, 28]  26.32 ( 21.05) [0, 56, 0, 4, 16]
[ 7, 29]  21.82 ( 16.36) [0, 43, 0, 3, 9]
[ 8, 30]  16.67 ( 13.33) [0, 25, 0, 1, 4]
[ 9, 31]  17.86 ( 10.71) [0, 23, 0, 2, 3]
[10, 32]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 24, 0, 0, 0]
[11, 33]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 21, 0, 0, 0]
[12, 34]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 1, 0, 0, 0]
[13, 35]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 2, 0, 0, 0]
23
[ 1, 24]  37.93 ( 37.93) [0, 18, 0, 0, 11]
[ 2, 25]  40.62 ( 40.62) [0, 38, 0, 0, 26]
[ 3, 26]  42.70 ( 40.45) [0, 51, 0, 2, 36]
[ 4, 27]  32.53 ( 30.12) [0, 56, 0, 2, 25]
[ 5, 28]  38.27 ( 35.80) [0, 50, 0, 2, 29]
[ 6, 29]  27.59 ( 20.69) [0, 42, 0, 4, 12]
[ 7, 30]  22.92 ( 18.75) [0, 37, 0, 2, 9]
[ 8, 31]  12.50 (  9.38) [0, 28, 0, 1, 3]
[ 9, 32]   9.52 (  9.52) [0, 19, 0, 0, 2]
[10, 33]  17.39 ( 17.39) [0, 19, 0, 0, 4]
[11, 34]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 9, 0, 0, 0]
[12, 35]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 5, 0, 0, 0]
[13, 36]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 3, 0, 0, 0]
24
[ 1, 25]  36.36 ( 36.36) [0, 14, 0, 0, 8]
[ 2, 26]  42.86 ( 42.86) [0, 32, 0, 0, 24]
[ 3, 27]  39.34 ( 36.07) [0, 37, 0, 2, 22]
[ 4, 28]  52.31 ( 49.23) [0, 31, 0, 2, 32]
[ 5, 29]  37.78 ( 31.11) [0, 28, 0, 3, 14]
[ 6, 30]  26.42 ( 26.42) [0, 39, 0, 0, 14]
[ 7, 31]  14.81 ( 14.81) [0, 23, 0, 0, 4]
[ 8, 32]  10.34 ( 10.34) [0, 26, 0, 0, 3]
[ 9, 33]   5.56 (  0.00) [0, 17, 0, 1, 0]
[10, 34]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 16, 0, 0, 0]
[11, 35]   8.33 (  0.00) [0, 11, 0, 1, 0]
[12, 36]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 6, 0, 0, 0]
25
[ 1, 26]  47.62 ( 47.62) [0, 11, 0, 0, 10]
[ 2, 27]  45.95 ( 45.95) [0, 20, 0, 0, 17]
[ 3, 28]  35.42 ( 35.42) [0, 31, 0, 0, 17]
[ 4, 29]  30.77 ( 28.21) [0, 27, 0, 1, 11]
[ 5, 30]  50.00 ( 47.06) [0, 17, 0, 1, 16]
[ 6, 31]  21.05 ( 15.79) [0, 15, 0, 1, 3]
[ 7, 32]  38.89 ( 33.33) [0, 11, 0, 1, 6]
[ 8, 33]  18.18 ( 18.18) [0, 9, 0, 0, 2]
[ 9, 34]  22.22 ( 16.67) [0, 14, 0, 1, 3]
[10, 35]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 6, 0, 0, 0]
[11, 36]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 7, 0, 0, 0]
[12, 37]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 3, 0, 0, 0]
[13, 38]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 2, 0, 0, 0]
26
[ 1, 27]  71.43 ( 71.43) [0, 2, 0, 0, 5]
[ 2, 28]  30.30 ( 30.30) [0, 23, 0, 0, 10]
[ 3, 29]  32.14 ( 28.57) [0, 19, 0, 1, 8]
[ 4, 30]  25.00 ( 25.00) [0, 15, 0, 0, 5]
[ 5, 31]  38.46 ( 38.46) [0, 8, 0, 0, 5]
[ 6, 32]  27.78 ( 22.22) [0, 13, 0, 1, 4]
[ 7, 33]  25.00 ( 25.00) [0, 9, 0, 0, 3]
[ 8, 34]  25.00 ( 25.00) [0, 9, 0, 0, 3]
[ 9, 35]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 14, 0, 0, 0]
[10, 36]  25.00 ( 25.00) [0, 3, 0, 0, 1]
[11, 37]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 5, 0, 0, 0]
[12, 38]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 3, 0, 0, 0]
[13, 39]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 1, 0, 0, 0]
27
[ 1, 28]  53.85 ( 53.85) [0, 6, 0, 0, 7]
[ 2, 29]  20.00 ( 20.00) [0, 8, 0, 0, 2]
[ 3, 30]  26.67 ( 26.67) [0, 11, 0, 0, 4]
[ 4, 31]  31.25 ( 31.25) [0, 11, 0, 0, 5]
[ 5, 32]  33.33 ( 25.00) [0, 8, 0, 1, 3]
[ 6, 33]  33.33 ( 33.33) [0, 8, 0, 0, 4]
[ 7, 34]  40.00 ( 40.00) [0, 3, 0, 0, 2]
[ 8, 35]  25.00 ( 25.00) [0, 6, 0, 0, 2]
[ 9, 36]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 3, 0, 0, 0]
[10, 37]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 2, 0, 0, 0]
[11, 38]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 2, 0, 0, 0]
[12, 39]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 3, 0, 0, 0]
[13, 40]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 1, 0, 0, 0]
28
[ 1, 29]  33.33 ( 33.33) [0, 4, 0, 0, 2]
[ 2, 30]  55.56 ( 55.56) [0, 4, 0, 0, 5]
[ 3, 31]  55.56 ( 55.56) [0, 4, 0, 0, 5]
[ 4, 32]  22.22 ( 22.22) [0, 7, 0, 0, 2]
[ 5, 33]  22.22 ( 22.22) [0, 7, 0, 0, 2]
[ 6, 34]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 1, 0, 0, 0]
[ 7, 35]  28.57 ( 28.57) [0, 5, 0, 0, 2]
[ 8, 36]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 2, 0, 0, 0]
[ 9, 37]  25.00 ( 25.00) [0, 3, 0, 0, 1]
[10, 38]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 4, 0, 0, 0]
[11, 39]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 8, 0, 0, 0]
[12, 40]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 1, 0, 0, 0]
29
[ 2, 31]  33.33 ( 33.33) [0, 2, 0, 0, 1]
[ 3, 32]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 4, 0, 0, 0]
[ 4, 33] 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 2]
[ 5, 34]  20.00 ( 20.00) [0, 4, 0, 0, 1]
[ 6, 35] 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 1]
[ 7, 36]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 2, 0, 0, 0]
[ 8, 37]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 6, 0, 0, 0]
[ 9, 38]  33.33 ( 33.33) [0, 2, 0, 0, 1]
[11, 40]   0.00 (  0.00) [0, 1, 0, 0, 0]

まぁ1位と2位の差が開いていれば、とにかく2位のプレイヤーより上になればいいのだから簡単。
2位との点差が近ければ近いほど勝ちやすくなる。それでも勝率はせいぜい40%程度まで、と低め。
あとは1位と2位の点差が大きくないとき。やっぱり7点くらいは離れていないとその間に入り込める確率は低くなるようだ。


なんにせよ、第4ラウンド終了時は3位になっているより2位になっている方が勝ちやすいようなので第4ラウンド時点でも最中限を目指すようにカードを選択すべきなようだ。