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第4ラウンド終了時に点数が単独2位のときにそのまま単独2位をキープできる確率

前回の4ラウンド終了時にどんな点差になっているのが理想的なのか - すぎゃーんメモの結果を元に(500000回でやり直してみたけど)、
第4ラウンド終了時で既に単独2位のときにそのまま2位を維持できる割合を求めてみる。

# -*- encoding: utf-8 -*-

f = open('result.txt', 'r')
total = []
for i in range(50):
    tmp = [0]*5
    total.append(tmp)
while 1:
    l = f.readline()
    if not l:
        break
    left = l[0:l.index(':') - 1]
    score = [int(x) for x in left.split(',')]
    right = l[l.index(':') + 2:]
    result = [int(x) for x in right[right.index('[')+1:right.index(']')].split(',')]
    # 単独2位のとき
    if (score[0] * score[1] < 0):
        for i in range(5):
            total[abs(score[0]-score[1])][i] += result[i]

for i in range(len(total)):
    if sum(total[i]) > 0:
        win = 100.0 * (total[i][3]+total[i][4]) / sum(total[i])
        win2 = 100.0 * total[i][4] / sum(total[i])
        print '%2d' % i, '%6.2f' % win, '(%6.2f)' % win2, total[i]

1位のプレイヤーと3位のプレイヤーの点差ごとにまとめてみた結果は以下。

 2  53.97 ( 53.33) [11, 638, 0, 9, 752]
 3  53.43 ( 51.89) [39, 1171, 0, 40, 1348]
 4  55.44 ( 52.75) [72, 1550, 0, 98, 1920]
 5  56.99 ( 53.45) [128, 1877, 0, 165, 2492]
 6  59.06 ( 55.30) [176, 1994, 0, 199, 2931]
 7  63.48 ( 58.77) [202, 2041, 0, 289, 3609]
 8  66.14 ( 61.54) [197, 2035, 0, 303, 4057]
 9  68.65 ( 63.80) [184, 2090, 0, 352, 4628]
10  72.22 ( 67.11) [138, 2016, 0, 397, 5204]
11  74.37 ( 69.63) [96, 1979, 0, 384, 5638]
12  77.70 ( 73.14) [37, 1771, 0, 369, 5929]
13  80.41 ( 76.10) [10, 1628, 0, 360, 6362]
14  81.58 ( 77.33) [0, 1553, 0, 359, 6521]
15  85.01 ( 81.36) [0, 1295, 0, 315, 7028]
16  85.96 ( 82.70) [0, 1141, 0, 265, 6721]
17  87.57 ( 84.13) [0, 936, 0, 259, 6333]
18  89.77 ( 87.15) [0, 678, 0, 174, 5778]
19  89.58 ( 87.08) [0, 601, 0, 144, 5022]
20  89.41 ( 87.29) [0, 519, 0, 104, 4279]
21  90.46 ( 88.14) [0, 391, 0, 95, 3612]
22  91.01 ( 89.17) [0, 318, 0, 65, 3154]
23  91.49 ( 89.89) [0, 255, 0, 48, 2695]
24  92.10 ( 90.66) [0, 187, 0, 34, 2146]
25  92.13 ( 90.46) [0, 160, 0, 34, 1840]
26  93.32 ( 92.25) [0, 106, 0, 17, 1465]
27  92.33 ( 91.11) [0, 88, 0, 14, 1045]
28  92.40 ( 90.54) [0, 61, 0, 15, 727]
29  95.33 ( 94.32) [0, 28, 0, 6, 565]
30  94.57 ( 93.21) [0, 20, 0, 5, 343]
31  93.46 ( 91.92) [0, 17, 0, 4, 239]
32  96.41 ( 95.38) [0, 7, 0, 2, 186]
33  96.64 ( 94.63) [0, 5, 0, 3, 141]
34  96.81 ( 96.81) [0, 3, 0, 0, 91]
35  96.88 ( 96.88) [0, 2, 0, 0, 62]
36  92.68 ( 92.68) [0, 3, 0, 0, 38]
37  96.30 ( 96.30) [0, 1, 0, 0, 26]
38 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 16]
39 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 16]
40 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 7]
41 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 2]
42 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 1]
43 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 1]

まぁ当然のごとく1位と3位の差が大きければ大きいほど自分の勝率は上がる。当たり前か。
問題はその差の中で自分のスコアがどの位置にいるか、による影響か。
たとえ1位と3位が37点離れていても自分の点数がどちらかに近ければ1位や3位に変わってしまいやすいだろうから。
そのへんをkwsk解析していく。

2
 1: 1  53.97 ( 53.33) [11, 638, 0, 9, 752]
3
 1: 2  52.31 ( 50.77) [20, 600, 0, 20, 660]
 2: 1  54.55 ( 53.00) [19, 571, 0, 20, 688]
4
 1: 3  57.78 ( 55.04) [26, 468, 0, 32, 644]
 2: 2  52.76 ( 50.20) [23, 567, 0, 32, 627]
 3: 1  55.94 ( 53.15) [23, 515, 0, 34, 649]
5
 1: 4  58.66 ( 56.64) [33, 437, 0, 23, 644]
 2: 3  55.55 ( 51.18) [30, 479, 0, 50, 586]
 3: 2  56.26 ( 52.32) [29, 471, 0, 45, 598]
 4: 1  57.48 ( 53.68) [36, 490, 0, 47, 664]
6
 1: 5  60.87 ( 56.74) [28, 370, 0, 42, 577]
 2: 4  54.44 ( 51.32) [34, 433, 0, 32, 526]
 3: 3  59.22 ( 55.96) [38, 424, 0, 37, 634]
 4: 2  59.93 ( 55.19) [29, 403, 0, 51, 595]
 5: 1  60.74 ( 57.21) [47, 364, 0, 37, 599]
7
 1: 6  65.27 ( 60.86) [25, 306, 0, 42, 580]
 2: 5  62.06 ( 56.96) [41, 354, 0, 53, 593]
 3: 4  61.27 ( 56.44) [29, 356, 0, 48, 561]
 4: 3  63.36 ( 59.46) [34, 361, 0, 42, 641]
 5: 2  62.43 ( 57.86) [42, 369, 0, 50, 633]
 6: 1  66.77 ( 61.26) [31, 295, 0, 54, 601]
8
 1: 7  66.74 ( 62.74) [34, 265, 0, 36, 564]
 2: 6  65.33 ( 59.85) [20, 309, 0, 52, 568]
 3: 5  63.27 ( 57.96) [41, 305, 0, 50, 546]
 4: 4  65.17 ( 59.98) [29, 313, 0, 51, 589]
 5: 3  63.68 ( 60.15) [23, 326, 0, 34, 578]
 6: 2  67.71 ( 63.66) [27, 284, 0, 39, 613]
 7: 1  71.43 ( 66.85) [23, 233, 0, 41, 599]
9
 1: 8  69.37 ( 64.39) [30, 234, 0, 43, 555]
 2: 7  67.76 ( 63.36) [21, 294, 0, 43, 619]
 3: 6  68.08 ( 62.57) [27, 251, 0, 48, 545]
 4: 5  65.54 ( 59.67) [21, 296, 0, 54, 549]
 5: 4  64.57 ( 59.68) [25, 308, 0, 46, 561]
 6: 3  69.40 ( 63.06) [17, 263, 0, 58, 577]
 7: 2  72.05 ( 67.48) [22, 229, 0, 41, 606]
 8: 1  72.90 ( 70.72) [21, 215, 0, 19, 616]
10
 1: 9  75.64 ( 72.97) [17, 193, 0, 23, 629]
 2: 8  77.50 ( 72.74) [13, 176, 0, 40, 611]
 3: 7  73.36 ( 66.59) [12, 216, 0, 58, 570]
 4: 6  68.68 ( 61.21) [16, 269, 0, 68, 557]
 5: 5  68.33 ( 63.03) [22, 277, 0, 50, 595]
 6: 4  69.53 ( 62.21) [18, 244, 0, 63, 535]
 7: 3  70.04 ( 65.10) [22, 233, 0, 42, 554]
 8: 2  73.44 ( 69.78) [15, 210, 0, 31, 591]
 9: 1  74.39 ( 71.59) [3, 198, 0, 22, 562]
11
 1:10  77.17 ( 74.97) [11, 155, 0, 16, 545]
 2: 9  76.88 ( 72.36) [8, 176, 0, 36, 576]
 3: 8  72.41 ( 67.68) [14, 231, 0, 42, 601]
 4: 7  74.30 ( 68.13) [9, 220, 0, 55, 607]
 5: 6  72.47 ( 66.24) [13, 221, 0, 53, 563]
 6: 5  70.96 ( 65.83) [10, 245, 0, 45, 578]
 7: 4  71.41 ( 64.89) [7, 234, 0, 55, 547]
 8: 3  75.76 ( 70.50) [10, 188, 0, 43, 576]
 9: 2  76.09 ( 73.84) [9, 172, 0, 17, 559]
10: 1  78.15 ( 74.77) [5, 137, 0, 22, 486]
12
 1:11  81.41 ( 79.06) [1, 110, 0, 14, 472]
 2:10  81.65 ( 78.09) [6, 123, 0, 25, 549]
 3: 9  80.16 ( 74.70) [5, 144, 0, 41, 561]
 4: 8  77.62 ( 71.53) [4, 180, 0, 50, 588]
 5: 7  75.26 ( 68.84) [3, 209, 0, 55, 590]
 6: 6  72.86 ( 67.43) [3, 222, 0, 45, 559]
 7: 5  77.13 ( 71.21) [5, 188, 0, 50, 601]
 8: 4  78.54 ( 72.40) [1, 170, 0, 49, 577]
 9: 3  75.29 ( 72.50) [4, 164, 0, 19, 493]
10: 2  79.57 ( 77.27) [1, 132, 0, 15, 503]
11: 1  76.87 ( 75.83) [4, 129, 0, 6, 436]
13
 1:12  81.04 ( 80.00) [0, 109, 0, 6, 460]
 2:11  83.23 ( 81.21) [1, 107, 0, 13, 523]
 3:10  81.83 ( 77.88) [1, 114, 0, 25, 493]
 4: 9  81.69 ( 76.39) [0, 145, 0, 42, 605]
 5: 8  82.89 ( 76.23) [2, 134, 0, 53, 606]
 6: 7  80.51 ( 73.67) [0, 168, 0, 59, 635]
 7: 6  80.90 ( 75.00) [1, 164, 0, 51, 648]
 8: 5  78.82 ( 72.03) [0, 162, 0, 52, 551]
 9: 4  77.33 ( 72.04) [3, 160, 0, 38, 518]
10: 3  78.63 ( 76.74) [1, 146, 0, 13, 528]
11: 2  76.81 ( 75.75) [1, 130, 0, 6, 428]
12: 1  80.57 ( 80.13) [0, 89, 0, 2, 367]
14
 1:13  83.10 ( 82.75) [0, 97, 0, 2, 475]
 2:12  81.47 ( 80.22) [0, 103, 0, 7, 446]
 3:11  82.48 ( 78.10) [0, 116, 0, 29, 517]
 4:10  81.96 ( 78.59) [0, 118, 0, 22, 514]
 5: 9  84.86 ( 77.57) [0, 112, 0, 54, 574]
 6: 8  83.42 ( 77.68) [0, 127, 0, 44, 595]
 7: 7  80.37 ( 74.78) [0, 158, 0, 45, 602]
 8: 6  80.02 ( 74.03) [0, 160, 0, 48, 593]
 9: 5  82.76 ( 76.21) [0, 121, 0, 46, 535]
10: 4  81.51 ( 76.71) [0, 135, 0, 35, 560]
11: 3  78.64 ( 76.24) [0, 116, 0, 13, 414]
12: 2  80.04 ( 77.93) [0, 104, 0, 11, 406]
13: 1  77.31 ( 76.52) [0, 86, 0, 3, 290]
15
 1:14  80.04 ( 79.83) [0, 92, 0, 1, 368]
 2:13  83.97 ( 82.88) [0, 88, 0, 6, 455]
 3:12  87.97 ( 84.55) [0, 74, 0, 21, 520]
 4:11  87.85 ( 83.64) [0, 78, 0, 27, 537]
 5:10  86.99 ( 81.75) [0, 92, 0, 37, 578]
 6: 9  86.19 ( 81.23) [0, 103, 0, 37, 606]
 7: 8  88.17 ( 84.19) [0, 92, 0, 31, 655]
 8: 7  86.03 ( 79.80) [0, 112, 0, 50, 640]
 9: 6  86.98 ( 80.05) [0, 107, 0, 57, 658]
10: 5  84.42 ( 81.53) [0, 108, 0, 20, 565]
11: 4  82.49 ( 80.20) [0, 107, 0, 14, 490]
12: 3  80.66 ( 78.72) [0, 100, 0, 10, 407]
13: 2  81.38 ( 80.36) [0, 73, 0, 4, 315]
14: 1  77.23 ( 77.23) [0, 69, 0, 0, 234]
16
 1:15  81.59 ( 80.85) [0, 74, 0, 3, 325]
 2:14  79.10 ( 77.91) [0, 88, 0, 5, 328]
 3:13  84.48 ( 82.46) [0, 77, 0, 10, 409]
 4:12  86.36 ( 81.87) [0, 73, 0, 24, 438]
 5:11  91.04 ( 87.17) [0, 51, 0, 22, 496]
 6:10  90.71 ( 85.98) [0, 55, 0, 28, 509]
 7: 9  90.37 ( 86.39) [0, 63, 0, 26, 565]
 8: 8  89.41 ( 84.98) [0, 74, 0, 31, 594]
 9: 7  89.15 ( 83.14) [0, 83, 0, 46, 636]
10: 6  86.88 ( 83.17) [0, 92, 0, 26, 583]
11: 5  84.85 ( 81.14) [0, 98, 0, 24, 525]
12: 4  82.43 ( 80.75) [0, 94, 0, 9, 432]
13: 3  83.13 ( 81.50) [0, 83, 0, 8, 401]
14: 2  79.78 ( 78.95) [0, 73, 0, 3, 285]
15: 1  75.58 ( 75.58) [0, 63, 0, 0, 195]
17
 1:16  76.28 ( 75.96) [0, 74, 0, 1, 237]
 2:15  83.94 ( 82.82) [0, 57, 0, 4, 294]
 3:14  85.41 ( 84.32) [0, 54, 0, 4, 312]
 4:13  87.35 ( 83.45) [0, 52, 0, 16, 343]
 5:12  87.65 ( 85.47) [0, 51, 0, 9, 353]
 6:11  89.26 ( 84.29) [0, 54, 0, 25, 424]
 7:10  92.39 ( 85.66) [0, 43, 0, 38, 484]
 8: 9  92.16 ( 87.30) [0, 50, 0, 31, 557]
 9: 8  92.74 ( 88.00) [0, 49, 0, 32, 594]
10: 7  91.86 ( 87.21) [0, 56, 0, 32, 600]
11: 6  87.81 ( 82.10) [0, 79, 0, 37, 532]
12: 5  85.07 ( 82.38) [0, 89, 0, 16, 491]
13: 4  85.48 ( 84.23) [0, 70, 0, 6, 406]
14: 3  83.52 ( 82.96) [0, 59, 0, 2, 297]
15: 2  81.49 ( 80.00) [0, 62, 0, 5, 268]
16: 1  79.33 ( 78.77) [0, 37, 0, 1, 141]
18
 1:17  86.80 ( 85.28) [0, 26, 0, 3, 168]
 2:16  81.59 ( 80.75) [0, 44, 0, 2, 193]
 3:15  90.11 ( 88.28) [0, 27, 0, 5, 241]
 4:14  85.21 ( 83.80) [0, 42, 0, 4, 238]
 5:13  92.97 ( 89.91) [0, 23, 0, 10, 294]
 6:12  91.72 ( 89.64) [0, 28, 0, 7, 303]
 7:11  93.78 ( 91.15) [0, 26, 0, 11, 381]
 8:10  96.02 ( 92.25) [0, 20, 0, 19, 464]
 9: 9  95.34 ( 91.43) [0, 25, 0, 21, 491]
10: 8  93.62 ( 88.62) [0, 37, 0, 29, 514]
11: 7  92.26 ( 87.74) [0, 48, 0, 28, 544]
12: 6  91.57 ( 89.54) [0, 50, 0, 12, 531]
13: 5  84.25 ( 82.35) [0, 83, 0, 10, 434]
14: 4  85.25 ( 83.95) [0, 68, 0, 6, 387]
15: 3  81.87 ( 81.32) [0, 66, 0, 2, 296]
16: 2  83.18 ( 81.36) [0, 37, 0, 4, 179]
17: 1  81.21 ( 80.54) [0, 28, 0, 1, 120]
19
 1:18  78.81 ( 78.81) [0, 25, 0, 0, 93]
 2:17  81.65 ( 81.01) [0, 29, 0, 1, 128]
 3:16  79.87 ( 77.92) [0, 31, 0, 3, 120]
 4:15  86.52 ( 84.27) [0, 24, 0, 4, 150]
 5:14  89.72 ( 87.85) [0, 22, 0, 4, 188]
 6:13  91.09 ( 87.45) [0, 22, 0, 9, 216]
 7:12  95.80 ( 90.91) [0, 12, 0, 14, 260]
 8:11  96.03 ( 92.63) [0, 14, 0, 12, 327]
 9:10  96.12 ( 94.06) [0, 17, 0, 9, 412]
10: 9  93.91 ( 91.89) [0, 30, 0, 10, 453]
11: 8  95.05 ( 90.66) [0, 27, 0, 24, 495]
12: 7  91.77 ( 88.68) [0, 48, 0, 18, 517]
13: 6  90.97 ( 88.99) [0, 50, 0, 11, 493]
14: 5  85.32 ( 82.13) [0, 69, 0, 15, 386]
15: 4  80.70 ( 78.95) [0, 77, 0, 7, 315]
16: 3  80.88 ( 80.15) [0, 52, 0, 2, 218]
17: 2  84.93 ( 84.47) [0, 33, 0, 1, 185]
18: 1  77.65 ( 77.65) [0, 19, 0, 0, 66]
20
 1:19  75.27 ( 74.19) [0, 23, 0, 1, 69]
 2:18  81.11 ( 78.89) [0, 17, 0, 2, 71]
 3:17  84.80 ( 84.00) [0, 19, 0, 1, 105]
 4:16  88.64 ( 85.61) [0, 15, 0, 4, 113]
 5:15  91.14 ( 87.34) [0, 14, 0, 6, 138]
 6:14  94.48 ( 91.72) [0, 8, 0, 4, 133]
 7:13  95.09 ( 94.48) [0, 8, 0, 1, 154]
 8:12  96.82 ( 93.64) [0, 7, 0, 7, 206]
 9:11  96.98 ( 94.30) [0, 9, 0, 8, 281]
10:10  96.23 ( 94.20) [0, 13, 0, 7, 325]
11: 9  97.51 ( 94.76) [0, 10, 0, 11, 380]
12: 8  95.48 ( 92.76) [0, 20, 0, 12, 410]
13: 7  90.29 ( 87.96) [0, 50, 0, 12, 453]
14: 6  89.80 ( 87.64) [0, 47, 0, 10, 404]
15: 5  84.45 ( 81.44) [0, 67, 0, 13, 351]
16: 4  81.90 ( 81.31) [0, 61, 0, 2, 274]
17: 3  78.52 ( 78.15) [0, 58, 0, 1, 211]
18: 2  72.28 ( 71.20) [0, 51, 0, 2, 131]
19: 1  76.09 ( 76.09) [0, 22, 0, 0, 70]
21
 1:20  60.00 ( 60.00) [0, 14, 0, 0, 21]
 2:19  82.46 ( 82.46) [0, 10, 0, 0, 47]
 3:18  91.78 ( 84.93) [0, 6, 0, 5, 62]
 4:17  91.21 ( 91.21) [0, 8, 0, 0, 83]
 5:16  85.23 ( 81.82) [0, 13, 0, 3, 72]
 6:15  92.37 ( 88.98) [0, 9, 0, 4, 105]
 7:14  94.59 ( 90.09) [0, 6, 0, 5, 100]
 8:13  96.67 ( 94.17) [0, 4, 0, 3, 113]
 9:12  96.62 ( 91.89) [0, 5, 0, 7, 136]
10:11  98.70 ( 98.26) [0, 3, 0, 1, 226]
11:10  98.93 ( 95.73) [0, 3, 0, 9, 269]
12: 9  97.43 ( 94.57) [0, 9, 0, 10, 331]
13: 8  96.09 ( 93.64) [0, 16, 0, 10, 383]
14: 7  91.21 ( 89.23) [0, 40, 0, 9, 406]
15: 6  90.47 ( 88.37) [0, 41, 0, 9, 380]
16: 5  86.91 ( 84.44) [0, 53, 0, 10, 342]
17: 4  82.55 ( 80.06) [0, 56, 0, 8, 257]
18: 3  74.62 ( 73.60) [0, 50, 0, 2, 145]
19: 2  77.94 ( 77.94) [0, 30, 0, 0, 106]
20: 1  65.12 ( 65.12) [0, 15, 0, 0, 28]
22
 1:21  73.33 ( 73.33) [0, 8, 0, 0, 22]
 2:20  80.00 ( 80.00) [0, 8, 0, 0, 32]
 3:19  82.00 ( 82.00) [0, 9, 0, 0, 41]
 4:18  96.08 ( 94.12) [0, 2, 0, 1, 48]
 5:17  88.71 ( 85.48) [0, 7, 0, 2, 53]
 6:16  90.91 ( 87.01) [0, 7, 0, 3, 67]
 7:15  93.55 ( 91.40) [0, 6, 0, 2, 85]
 8:14  94.52 ( 94.52) [0, 4, 0, 0, 69]
 9:13  97.17 ( 97.17) [0, 3, 0, 0, 103]
10:12  99.04 ( 96.15) [0, 1, 0, 3, 100]
11:11 100.00 ( 98.97) [0, 0, 0, 2, 193]
12:10  97.70 ( 96.31) [0, 5, 0, 3, 209]
13: 9  98.29 ( 96.58) [0, 5, 0, 5, 282]
14: 8  93.73 ( 91.64) [0, 24, 0, 8, 351]
15: 7  88.44 ( 85.75) [0, 43, 0, 10, 319]
16: 6  91.11 ( 89.14) [0, 36, 0, 8, 361]
17: 5  88.70 ( 87.01) [0, 40, 0, 6, 308]
18: 4  84.81 ( 81.48) [0, 41, 0, 9, 220]
19: 3  82.18 ( 80.69) [0, 36, 0, 3, 163]
20: 2  77.50 ( 77.50) [0, 27, 0, 0, 93]
21: 1  85.37 ( 85.37) [0, 6, 0, 0, 35]
23
 1:22  88.24 ( 88.24) [0, 2, 0, 0, 15]
 2:21  78.26 ( 69.57) [0, 5, 0, 2, 16]
 3:20  78.57 ( 78.57) [0, 6, 0, 0, 22]
 4:19  91.30 ( 91.30) [0, 4, 0, 0, 42]
 5:18  93.48 ( 91.30) [0, 3, 0, 1, 42]
 6:17  95.74 ( 95.74) [0, 2, 0, 0, 45]
 7:16  94.64 ( 91.07) [0, 3, 0, 2, 51]
 8:15  97.50 ( 96.25) [0, 2, 0, 1, 77]
 9:14  98.63 ( 97.26) [0, 1, 0, 1, 71]
10:13  98.61 ( 98.61) [0, 1, 0, 0, 71]
11:12 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 102]
12:11 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 159]
13:10  99.04 ( 98.08) [0, 2, 0, 2, 204]
14: 9  95.88 ( 93.81) [0, 12, 0, 6, 273]
15: 8  95.82 ( 94.43) [0, 12, 0, 4, 271]
16: 7  90.24 ( 87.28) [0, 33, 0, 10, 295]
17: 6  87.38 ( 83.50) [0, 39, 0, 12, 258]
18: 5  86.51 ( 84.54) [0, 41, 0, 6, 257]
19: 4  83.70 ( 83.26) [0, 37, 0, 1, 189]
20: 3  82.66 ( 82.66) [0, 30, 0, 0, 143]
21: 2  84.09 ( 84.09) [0, 14, 0, 0, 74]
22: 1  75.00 ( 75.00) [0, 6, 0, 0, 18]
24
 1:23  77.78 ( 77.78) [0, 2, 0, 0, 7]
 2:22  83.33 ( 83.33) [0, 3, 0, 0, 15]
 3:21  95.45 ( 95.45) [0, 1, 0, 0, 21]
 4:20  89.29 ( 89.29) [0, 3, 0, 0, 25]
 5:19  90.62 ( 84.38) [0, 3, 0, 2, 27]
 6:18  90.00 ( 87.50) [0, 4, 0, 1, 35]
 7:17  96.23 ( 92.45) [0, 2, 0, 2, 49]
 8:16  96.83 ( 95.24) [0, 2, 0, 1, 60]
 9:15  96.30 ( 96.30) [0, 2, 0, 0, 52]
10:14  98.36 ( 96.72) [0, 1, 0, 1, 59]
11:13 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 63]
12:12 100.00 ( 98.08) [0, 0, 0, 1, 51]
13:11  99.18 ( 98.36) [0, 1, 0, 1, 120]
14:10  99.34 ( 98.68) [0, 1, 0, 1, 149]
15: 9  97.24 ( 94.47) [0, 6, 0, 6, 205]
16: 8  95.59 ( 94.71) [0, 10, 0, 2, 215]
17: 7  94.67 ( 93.44) [0, 13, 0, 3, 228]
18: 6  89.80 ( 87.45) [0, 26, 0, 6, 223]
19: 5  88.70 ( 86.61) [0, 27, 0, 5, 207]
20: 4  80.92 ( 79.77) [0, 33, 0, 2, 138]
21: 3  84.17 ( 84.17) [0, 22, 0, 0, 117]
22: 2  76.32 ( 76.32) [0, 18, 0, 0, 58]
23: 1  75.86 ( 75.86) [0, 7, 0, 0, 22]
25
 1:24  66.67 ( 66.67) [0, 1, 0, 0, 2]
 2:23 100.00 ( 87.50) [0, 0, 0, 1, 7]
 3:22  87.50 ( 81.25) [0, 2, 0, 1, 13]
 4:21  69.23 ( 69.23) [0, 4, 0, 0, 9]
 5:20  85.19 ( 85.19) [0, 4, 0, 0, 23]
 6:19  91.43 ( 91.43) [0, 3, 0, 0, 32]
 7:18  92.00 ( 92.00) [0, 2, 0, 0, 23]
 8:17  96.49 ( 94.74) [0, 2, 0, 1, 54]
 9:16  98.21 ( 98.21) [0, 1, 0, 0, 55]
10:15 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 48]
11:14 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 38]
12:13 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 42]
13:12 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 64]
14:11  97.89 ( 97.89) [0, 2, 0, 0, 93]
15:10  98.64 ( 98.64) [0, 2, 0, 0, 145]
16: 9  98.78 ( 95.12) [0, 2, 0, 6, 156]
17: 8  95.67 ( 94.37) [0, 10, 0, 3, 218]
18: 7  95.00 ( 92.00) [0, 10, 0, 6, 184]
19: 6  90.64 ( 88.18) [0, 19, 0, 5, 179]
20: 5  87.75 ( 85.29) [0, 25, 0, 5, 174]
21: 4  79.86 ( 78.47) [0, 29, 0, 2, 113]
22: 3  78.40 ( 75.20) [0, 27, 0, 4, 94]
23: 2  82.67 ( 82.67) [0, 13, 0, 0, 62]
24: 1  85.71 ( 85.71) [0, 2, 0, 0, 12]
26
 1:25  50.00 ( 50.00) [0, 1, 0, 0, 1]
 2:24  85.71 ( 71.43) [0, 1, 0, 1, 5]
 3:23  77.78 ( 55.56) [0, 2, 0, 2, 5]
 4:22  66.67 ( 66.67) [0, 3, 0, 0, 6]
 5:21  93.75 ( 93.75) [0, 1, 0, 0, 15]
 6:20  91.67 ( 91.67) [0, 1, 0, 0, 11]
 7:19  89.66 ( 89.66) [0, 3, 0, 0, 26]
 8:18  97.14 ( 97.14) [0, 1, 0, 0, 34]
 9:17 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 42]
10:16 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 46]
11:15 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 46]
12:14 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 33]
13:13 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 35]
14:12 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 42]
15:11 100.00 (100.00) [0, 0, 0, 0, 75]
16:10  99.03 ( 99.03) [0, 1, 0, 0, 102]
17: 9  97.62 ( 97.62) [0, 3, 0, 0, 123]
18: 8  94.74 ( 94.74) [0, 7, 0, 0, 126]
19: 7  94.44 ( 92.36) [0, 8, 0, 3, 133]
20: 6  92.39 ( 89.13) [0, 14, 0, 6, 164]
21: 5  85.56 ( 84.44) [0, 26, 0, 2, 152]
22: 4  88.55 ( 86.26) [0, 15, 0, 3, 113]
23: 3  88.75 ( 88.75) [0, 9, 0, 0, 71]
24: 2  85.42 ( 85.42) [0, 7, 0, 0, 41]
25: 1  85.71 ( 85.71) [0, 3, 0, 0, 18]
...

うーん、これはどう取ればいいんだろう。
1位と3位のちょうど中間にいる方が勝率が高いときもあれば、どちらかに近い方が高いときもある。
ラウンドあたりの得点として7点が入る確率が一番高いからか?
というわけで1位と3位が14点くらい離れていれば自分が真ん中にいた方が勝ちやすいが、
それ以下の点差の場合はどちらかに偏っていた方が勝ちやすいようだ。
とは言えそれほど大差ないし、そもそも最終ターン以外はランダムでの実験だから、実際はもっと違うのかも…


やっぱり他の人々がみんなやってるように全探索とかやった方がいいのかなぁ